The Players Championship 2023 Tips: Former winners catch the eye this week

The Florida swing continues as the PGA Tour's showcase event hits TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship. 

Attracting arguably the strongest field in golf outside of the majors, a total of 144 players, which includes several Sawgrass specialists who are rounding into form, will tee it up for the fattest purse in the game. 

Last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill was a nice warm up for the test ahead as a handful of golf’s biggest stars battled it out for victory. However, it was longshot Kurt Kitayama, who was available at 300/1 with SBK pre-tournament, who pipped them all and earned a place in of the most prestigious tournaments.

Leading the market this week is Rory McIlroy (11) ahead of Jon Rahm (13.5), who just held onto his number one status after crumbling at Bay Hill, and Scottie Scheffler (13.5). However, it’s noticeable through the history of this tournament that any player type can win here. 

A number of the market leaders historically fail to contend and many have even missed the cut in this event. It's just that type of course - power from the tips is all but negated. Shot making will be the buzzword of the week, and I have a few players that fit the required criteria.

The Course

I’m sure you all want to know the answer to the question: what type of examination will golf's elite be contending with at TPC Sawgrass? Being an all-round test of golf with dog-legged fairways, accuracy from the tees is a prerequisite for success here. Great shot making ability will be required in the short game department, and scoring on the risk-reward holes, namely the par fives and short par four 12th, will be key. 

The sub-air systems beneath the surfaces can get the greens rolling fast - over 13’ on the stimpmeter - despite the earlier March slot in the calendar. The infamous island green on the 17th hole, and the water alongside the 18th will sort the men from the boys. Wind is often a factor at Tournament Players Club (TPC) Sawgrass.

The Contenders

I believe the standout this week is Justin Thomas (22 to win, 3.3 to finish top 10). The former Players’ champ is the ultimate shot maker, which is proven by the fact that he currently ranks first overall in strokes gained around the green. He’s rated 10/10 for scrambling in my model, and his overall rating on the course-fit-o-meter for TPC Sawgrass is 8.93. 

This means the American is expected to gain around one shot per round at Sawgrass against what would be deemed a neutral course for his attributes. Thomas added a draw shot shape into his armoury over the last few years, which stands him in good stead around here. A poor final round at Bay Hill leaves him a little under the radar and I think he should be the favourite this week.

Another player I like is Jason Day (36 to win, 3.7 to finish top 10), who has returned to something like his best this season while showing excellent progressive form culminating with a top 10 at Bay Hill - that is four top tens in a row now. That meant a progressive form rating on the model of a flawless 10/10. 

Day likes Florida golf and is a former Players’ Champ who is renowned for his short game. He ranks second on tour for scrambling in 2023, and being able to use three wood from a lot of the tees here will help the Australian, who can be a little erratic. He posted two other top tens here in the three years after his Sawgrass win, so it’s an 8.33 rating for Day in the course-fit department.

I also want a bit on another Players’ Championship winner in the form of Rickie Fowler (80 to win, 7 to finish top 10) this week. Fowler is returning to form after a few years in the doldrums, largely due to the fact that he's been working with Butch Harman again - according to Harman, he's ready to win soon. 

This ball-striking machine ranks 14th in strokes gained total, and is listed in the course fit manual as one to watch at Sawgrass (8.53 on the model). That rating doesn’t reflect his latest improved stats either, so he’s expected to pick up at least a half a shot per round versus a neutral venue for him. The American has a progressive form rating of 9 following another good showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Note: The course fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

The Players Championship 2023 Tips

Justin Thomas @ 22 (to win) and 3.3 (to finish in the top 10)
Jason Day @ 36 (to win) and 3.7 (to finish in the top 10)
Rickie Fowler @ 80 (to win) and 7 (to finish in the top 10)