The Open Championship 2023: Fleetwood, Lee and Spieth remain in the hunt behind runaway Harman

It’s been an interesting Open Championship so far at Royal Liverpool. Before the competition started we thought we were looking at potentially lower scores due to wet and softer conditions on top of moderate breezes. 

The wind forecast has held up for the most part with 15mph winds getting up to 20mph at times, which has been enough to show the teeth that Hoylake was lacking in the 2006 and 2014 editions of the Open Championship. 

The early-late starters had a slight advantage in terms of the weather (the scoring average from that side of the draw was 1.04 shots lower). However, it’s Brian Harman, who was tipped by our very own Adam Baylis in the preview podcast, from the late/early side of the draw who finds himself well out in front. My main selection, Tommy Fleetwood, is doing well in solo second and shouldn’t be written off. 

With Harman running away from the field, in-running punters are in heaven as there is plenty of good value among the chasing pack. A lone runaway leader generally comes back to the field on a tricky course like this.

So, who might spring from the pack?

I was drawn to Jordan Spieth pre-tournament due to his price. It is a common occurrence to see a top player drift in the week of a major, and it’s often a good angle to just back the big names who offer plenty of value and let variance do its thing. Spieth is right in the mix and is currently trading at 17.5 or 3.25 to finish in the top five.

On the other end of the scale, Aussie Min Woo Lee had his takers ahead of the tournament and he has held it together well after a dodgy start. After posting a second round of -3, he’s given himself a good chance of making inroads over the weekend. 

Lee demonstrated a liking for links golf with victory at Renaissance and it’s a similar test here at Hoylake. The big hitter can benefit from the softer conditions, while his wind skills and ability around the greens will hold him in good stead at Royal Liverpool.

If 2.72 is a little short on Brian Harman, another angle here is to lay him rather than back others. It’s even quite attractive to lay him at 1.34 in the top five market with some interesting weather forecast over the weekend. 

Several of the big names are struggling. Pre-tournament favourites Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler are -1 and +3 respectively, while Jon Rahm sits on +2. Having said that, only 24 players are in red numbers and McIlroy remains the third favourite at 13 in the betting. Can the Irishman get himself into the shake up on Open Championship Sunday?