The Memorial Tournament 2023 Tips: Bryan Nicholson opts for accurate iron players this week

The impressive streak of designated events on the PGA Tour continues this week as the players head to Jack’s Place: Nicklaus’ Muirfield Village Golf Club. 

Back-to-back tournaments were held here during the Covid period, but there was contrasting weather and it really showed the difference in scoring between a softer course in benign conditions versus a firm one with the wind blowing. With the world’s five best players and a 120-strong field this week, expect Muirfield to play tough after recent renovations.

550 FedEx points are on offer for the winner of this elevated status event, not to mention the inflated purse that comes with these stronger fields, and The Memorial’s betting resembles a major championship heat.

Scottie Scheffler (8.2 to win) and Jon Rahm (9.2) unsurprisingly lead the market, and the latter has a point to prove after his untimely withdrawal due to a positive Covid test when in the lead here in 2021. 

Patrick Cantlay (12), who has two wins here to his name, is further down the market but should perhaps be closer to favouritism. A big name will most likely hoist the trophy again at this major-esque venue. 

The Course

Muirfield Village plays to a par 72 over 7,533 yards. The Jack Nicklaus design is known for its thick rough and generally plays fast and firm. This marks the event’s third edition since undergoing renovations and Muirfield Village is the primary second-shot course on tour.

Strokes gained approach and proximity to the hole will be key metrics this week, while total driving and par five performance back that up as premiums. The juicy rough around the greens negates good scrambling quality or around-the-greens performance somewhat, bringing more variance into play. You need to be underneath the hole on this track and avoid short-siding yourself.

The Contenders

Since his journey into the upper echelons of golf’s elite, Collin Morikawa (29 to win, 3.7 to finish top 10) has stood out as a perfect fit for Muirfield Village. Why? His Total driving statistics and proximity with his irons. He’s renowned as the best iron player in the game now so it’s no coincidence he has already posted a first and second-place finish here. 

Once again Collin leads the tour in approaching the green with 1.075 shots per round picked up on average. With all that in mind, it’s not a big surprise to see Morikawa come in at a whopping 9.47 on the course-fit-o-meter in my model. 

Viktor Hovland (22 to win, 3.4 to finish top 10) is another who thrives from tee to green and excels on tougher courses. The Norwegian is currently fourth in total driving and 11th in approaching the green, which helps him to a score of 9.1 in my course-fit model for Muirfield village. 

Hovland has a third place sandwiched in among three reasonable finishes here, but he’s yet to really show his potential for this track. He recorded a top 20 last week and was tied-seventh at The Masters. While he was the only player able to put it up to Brooks Koepka in the PGA Championship at Oak Hill, which offers a similar test to Muirfield Village.

My other two selections are Hideki Matsuyama (46 to win, 5.3 to finish top 10) and Corey Conners (60 to win, 5.5 to finish top 10), as both have the perfect profile for this venue. 

Matsuyama has won here before and has a spate of other high finishes, while Conners is showing progressive form on the track as he has got to grips with it over the years. The latter was right there for most of PGA Championship week at Oak Hill and seems to be in good form.

Meanwhile, Matsuyama put in a solid top 30 finish to follow a top five at the Players Championship and top 20 at The Masters. Both players are top 25 in strokes gained tee to green in 2023 and regulars near the summit of the iron and proximity stats year-on-year.

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

The Memorial Tournament 2023 Tips

Viktor Hovland @ 22 (to win), 3.4 (to finish top 10)
Collin Morikawa @ 29 (to win), 3.7 (to finish top 10)
Hideki Matsuyama @ 46 (to win), 5.3 (to finish top 10)
Corey Conners @ 60 (to win), 5.5 (to finish top 10)