Shriners Children's Open Preview & Betting Tips: Tom Kim and Aberg lead the field

It feels a little strange that as the PGA Tour adjusts to a new season format, fields in the old “Fall Series” are a little weak. It can be tough to find any outstanding candidates for these events pricewise but one thing’s for sure, players that can go low and shoot the lights out is the brief at TPC Summerlin. Lots of guys with no form at all line up in the desert.

Ludvig Aberg is still making waves and carrying on the good vibes from his Ryder Cup exploits. Aberg 15 back-doored his way into a 5-man playoff at the Sanderson Farms and he leads the market alongside young sensation and defending champ Tom Kim, 14. Kim won here on his first visit, but one thing course specialists like Kevin Na and Patrick Cantlay have shown us down the years, is that experience counts for plenty here. Tom Kim went bogey free to win the Shriners Children’s Open in 2022. Interesting to see Lexi Thompson making her debut with the boys this week, while 500 FedEx cup points are on offer for the winner. 

The Course – TPC Summerlin

Why does course history matter? TPC Summerlin – playing 7,255 yards to a par of 71 - is at altitude in the Nevada desert and that means distance control with the irons is vital. The more you play the more you know how they’ll fly into elevated greens surrounded by big trouble. Off the tees, the fairways and landing areas are generous but if you are particularly wayward, you’ll end up in no man’s land with some penalty areas and nasty lies in the desert scrub.

TPC Summerlin is a fantastic track where bigger hitters and aggressive players thrive. Controlled aggression is key. Greens are large and elevated with false fronts and there’s a strong risk versus reward theme with water awaiting overly aggro approaches. Greens are Bentgrass and rough is sparse. There’s a premium on Total Driving and proximity to the hole and plenty of par breakers will be the desert dessert.

The Contenders

One guy standing out at the Shriners Children’s Open is Davis Thompson who hit four rounds of 70 or better last week for a t16 finish at Jackson CC. His form line shows mc-22-30-16 for a progressive form rating in my model of 8.73. Thompson was 12th last year with an average score of 67 across 4 rounds, and 50.0 or 5.7 the top 10 looks a nice price.

Matthew NeSmith was t25 last week and has been simmering form wise of late. The American opened with a 66 at the Sanderson Farms. NeSmith hit four rounds of 68-66-63-66 last year at TPC Summerlin to finish tied second with Patrick Cantlay and at odds of 90.0 or 6.8 top 10 I’ll have him inside here. 

Taylor Montgomery was a standout in the driving and putting stats early last season and topped the birdie charts. He was 2nd in SG: Putting and 3rd in par 4 birdies or better percentage. That’s the typical prototype we’re looking for here. Taylor was 15th on debut at TPC Summerlin last year and I’m tempted to wade in at 110.0 or 8.2 the top 10.

I’m surprised to see Henrik Norlander (270.0 or 13.5) so far down the Shriners betting list. One of five players in a playoff at the Sanderson Farms last week, Henrik is an outstanding ball striker and when he contends the flat stick is usually on song. Let’s hope it keeps working at Summerlin.

Recommended Bets

Back Matthew NeSmith to win @ 90 or t10 finish @ 6.8
Back Taylor Montgomery to win @ 110 or t10 finish @ 9.6
Back Henrik Norlander to win @ 300 or t10 finish @ 14.5