Genesis Scottish Open 2023 Tips: Look no further than Tommy Fleetwood this week

Unfortunately there have been a few dry weeks for us on the PGA Tour, but I’m hoping that some nice Scottish weather will change things up this week! 

The warm-up event for next week’s Open Championship gets underway at the Renaissance Club, and most of the elite breed of players have flown in to prepare for the season’s final major. 

Scottie Scheffler (8.8) leads the market with Rory McIlroy (11.5) and defending champion Xander Schauffele (18.5) tucked in behind. Rickie Fowler (24) has won the Scottish Open before and comes here fresh off his first victory in four years at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He and pal Justin Thomas (55) will be eager to get back playing golf following an appearance at Wimbledon.

The Course

Renaissance is one of the easier links courses with generous landing areas and only the odd bit of trouble ready to catch an errant drive. Some wispy fescues are the main defence from tee to green if you stray a little off the map. 

The course now plays as a par 70 at just over 7,200 yards. If it’s benign, going low will required and only the pot bunkers encroaching onto the greens will be defending the track from low scoring. You should be looking out for big hitters who can get close on approach with their short-to-mid irons and then finish off with the flat stick.

The Contenders

Rasmus Hojgaard will be looking to make a real push for Ryder Cup inclusion after his win at Himmerland, but I much prefer another homegrown and European talent who could make some waves over the next two weeks. He is also one of the finest links players on tour.

The player in question is Tommy Fleetwood (24 to win, 3.55 to finish top 10), who will be close to home at Hoylake. The Englishman owns two top-five finishes from his last three events, both in terms of current form and on this Renaissance track over the last few years. Course history and recent tournaments go a long way towards predicting who is going to challenge and the 32-year-old has all the skills to perform well.

Another lover of this course is Min Woo Lee (40 to win, 5.2 to finish top 10). The Aussie comes here with a course-fit rating of 9.5 in my model, which can be added to a 9.6 progressive form rating. 

Lee has already won one of the four renewals of the Scottish Open at Renaissance, and he performed way better than his other 30th-placed finish. He featured for much of the competition that time around, and should be considered one of the leading players this week.

The last selection is Robert MacIntyre (110 to win, 7.8 to finish top 10), who is storming into top gear and owns a progressive form rating of 9.53 in my model. He finished tied-fourth in Himmerland, possesses a course-fit rating for Renaissance Club of 8.58, and has recorded a couple of top 20s here in the past.

I want to end this article by giving a quick mention to Lucas Herbert and Ryan Fox, who could go nicely at huge prices this week. Both have good current and historic course form, and the Aussie touch is an angle I like over the next two weeks. However, they just fell short of making the cut this time around.

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

Scottish Open 2023 Tips

Tommy Fleetwood @ 24 (to win), 3.55 (to finish top 10)
Min Woo Lee @ 40 (to win), 5.2 (to finish top 10)
Robert MacIntyre @ 110 (to win), 7.8 (to finish top 10)