Ryder Cup 2023: Betting Guide

It’s shaping up to be a cracking Ryder Cup at the pristine Marco Simone Golf Club in Rome. Wispy fescues line what is going to be a golfing arena for four days, and two equally matched teams will square off. US captain Zach Johnson came under fire for somewhat dubious captain’s picks and following this the market moved in favour of Europe. Europe, led by Luke Donald, have now been backed into 2.2 on SBK, with USA at 2.0 for the win and the draw is priced at 12.5.

There’s no real course fit angle here. Marco Simone GC is an all-around test of golf albeit the power hitters on both sides will be able to cut some corners and fly some of the fairway bunkering for shorter approach shots. It’s going to come down to the quality of the players and this is where the advantage goes to the Americans, who only have two players outside the world top 20. However, on current form the Europeans are no slouches with three of the top four in the world in Rory Mclroy, John Rahm and Viktor Hovland. Matt Fitzpatrick also joins them in the world top 10.

We have course history to consider and many of the European side have experience from the Italian Open here at Marco Simone GC; Robert Macintyre and Nicolai Hojgaard have both won the Italian Open on the track. 

The course – Marco Simone GC

Marco Simone Golf Club will play as a par 71 at 7,181 yards in length after some risk and reward themed rerouting of the course. There’s no real standout attribute needed here when you look at both the eye test and the Italian Open leaderboards and stats over the three years. It’s a bit of an all-around test. Tight fairways will be lined by thick rough, and any errant shots will find the fescues or one of several lakes around the course. Fairway and greenside bunkering protect the scoring, and with the water around the greens and the brown wispy stuff for the wayward there’s a bit of a Le Golf National feel to this place. There will be an emphasis on approach play and a strong short game will be needed. The track encompasses doglegs that power hitters can take risks on, and some mounds surrounding the fairways and the greens along with the grandstands will facilitate spectator viewing.

What are the best bets for the Ryder Cup 2023?

The home crowd always plays its part at the Ryder Cup, and given all the variables, this is a straight up coin toss for me. You can take the 2.2 on Europe for a smidge of value but let’s look at the Correct Score market on SBK. I think it will be a close match and if we back Europe by the narrowest three score lines of 14.5-13.5, 15-13 and 15.5-12.5, we’ll get around 12.0 on each of the scores. If we Dutch these three scores (meaning we split our total outlay in proportion so that each selection will guarantee the same return if one wins), the narrow European victory by any of the three score lines pays 4.0 on our overall outlay.

Ryder Cup 2023 - Top points scorers

If we look at some of the strokes gained stats, we can see that Donald’s captains picks of Hojgaard and Macintyre were inside the top 35 of the strokes gained approach rankings in 2023. Bobby also ranked 6th in the scrambling department. Ludvig Aberg may have got a pick due to vice-captain Edoardo Molinari’s data analysis and the big Swede led the strokes gained off the tee stat on the PGA Tour since he turned pro. Aberg is 4.2 in the top European Wildcard market or 2.56 in the top European Rookie betting.

Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Rahm, McIlroy, Hovland and Rickie Fowler all cracked the top 10 in strokes gained: approach, on the PGA Tour in 2023, while Patrick Cantlay, Justin Rose and Sepp Straka were in the top 20 in this metric. Brian Harman led the scrambling stats, while Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrell Hatton all ranked inside the top 20 in scrambling.

It’s captain’s pick Max Homa that grabs my attention for the US. Homa is a player in form with an all-around game who fits any style of golf, and he can combine with most personality types. I expect he will play most if not all the matches. Max is 2.72 to be top US rookie and if you fancy him overall, he’s 9.8 to be top USA points scorer.

Will there be a hole in 1?

If you like your short prices, 1.26 on ‘no hole in one’ in this market is interesting. A hole in one is expected once every 1900 on par three attempts in elite golf. We can expect to see a total of around 250 individual par 3 tee shots across all the formats combined in the Ryder Cup in Italy. We must factor in that one of the four par 3s is on hole number 17 and several matches won’t reach this hole. I make the fair prices for us to see a hole in one around 1.15 no, and 7.7 yes.

Recommended Bets

Europe to win the Ryder Cup 2.28
Europe to win 14.5-13.5, 15-13, or 15.5-12.5 at 4.0 (Dutch bet)
Ludvig Aberg Top European Rookie at 2.56
Max Homa Top US Rookie 2.72
Will there be a hole in 1 – No @ 1.26