Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023 Tips

Out with the old and in with the new seems to be the norm for the golf betting world. Keegan Bradley’s brilliant home victory at the Travelers Championship has already been forgotten by the majority of punters, and who was it again that won the US Open?

We move swiftly onto the Donald Ross-designed Detroit Golf Club, where 25% of the world’s top 30 will be joined by the Tour stalwarts to compete for a purse of $8.8million.

This is a much weaker field than we have seen in the last couple of events, but it gives us a chance to back outsiders who might be overlooked by anyone other than golf betting regulars.

The market is headed by in-form Rickie Fowler (14.5) and defending champion Tony Finau (13), while a resurgent Justin Thomas (16) will surely be popular.

An obvious trend has developed after the first four renewals of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club - and it’s one you wouldn’t usually associate with Donald Ross courses. It’s usually the big hitters that dominate here, so let’s get down to the nitty gritty of the track.

The Course

Detroit Golf Club is tree-lined and lengthy at 7,370 yards, which plays to a par of 72. There is some deep rough but there’s usually an opening to the trademark back-to-front sloped greens. Driver will be the club of choice on most holes.

Accuracy with wedges and short irons will be key. Bryson DeChambeau and Matt Wolfe bombed their way ahead of the field a few years ago, while the last two renewals have been won by the big-hitting Cam Davis and Tony Finau. Soft conditions this week will add fuel to the big-hitter fire as putting on these green complexes can be quite random. Par five performance also stands out as a premium.

The Contenders

So, who might contend at a price this week? Tom Kim (17 to win, 2.7 to finish top 10) is going to be the exception to my ‘follow the outsiders’ rule.

Kim posted a top 10 on his debut at the Rocket Mortgage last year, which included a course record 63. He then confirmed his promise by winning at the Donald Ross-designed Sedgefield a week later.

It appears that the South Korean is returning to similar form - he helped me land a nice touch with a top 10 at the US Open for us, before proving a little inconsistent at the Travelers. That was Kim’s debut on a new course, so I’ll put that down to inexperience. He’s simmering beautifully and I am expecting a big performance if he can put four rounds together.

I’m now going to follow a ‘big-hitting newbies’ theme while taking a chance on some outsiders. Nicolai Hojgaard (65 to win, 8.2 to finish top 10) has been extended an invite this week and he can eat this type of course up, as proven in Europe on the resort courses.

Following a Nordic trend, two big-hitting Swedes are on the radar: Vincent Norrman (120 to win, 11.5 to finish top 10) and Ludvig Aberg (50 to win, 5.4 to finish top 10).

The latter is a college superstar and seems to already be finding his feet on the PGA Tour after going pro a few weeks ago. I have been waiting for a suitable course to back him and this looks like the perfect opportunity. “He’s got the ability to take over a golf course,” is a recent quote I’ve heard about his power hitting.

In eight pro rounds on the PGA Tour this season, Aberg has ranked inside the top 30 of both driving distance and Strokes Gained: Approach. He was also third in driving distance and strokes gained off the tee in the Travelers last week, where he recorded a top 25 finish despite posting a mediocre even-par round on Sunday.

Norrman has a pretty similar style and, despite some recent missed cuts, they were all pretty close calls. He has been swinging well in prior events and looks overpriced at triple figures.

The last two on my radar are Davis Riley (75 to win, 8.4 to finish top 10) and Gordon Sargent (65 to win, 8.2 to finish top 10), who are ball striking machines. The latter can also drive it off the planet like DeChambeau proved was a successful strategy back in 2020.

Sargent currently tops the amateur rankings and could take to Detroit Golf Club. He finished tied-39th at the US Open, largely due to book-ending his tournament with a pair of impressive 69s.