RBC Heritage 2023 Tips: Time to take on the market leaders at Harbour Town

The Masters’ crew spin down the road to Harbour Town this week for what appears to be a similarly competitive affair instead of a relaxing wind-down post Augusta. 

The RBC Heritage attracted a deeper renewal than usual in 2022, and the world’s best will once again make the short trip now that designated event status has been added. All except one, as Rory McIlroy has pulled out for unspecified reasons following his Masters disappointment.

Jon Rahm (11 to win) will be riding a high and look to follow up last week’s success, while Patrick Cantlay (12.5) loves the Harbour Town course and Scottie Scheffler (10) is once again playing catch up in the race to be the world’s (official) finest golfer.

This is always an interesting event as Harbour Town arguably eliminates the elite player advantage more than any other on tour. It’s all about positional play and short game here - bomb and gouge is not the recipe. Time to spot some nice value in the market!

The Course

Harbour Town Golf Links is a risk-reward style Pete Dye track that measures just 7,100 to a par of 71 on Hilton Head Island. Tree-lined and very tight from the tips, doglegs come into play and small greens are a big feature. Players need to find the correct side of the fairways to attack the pins. 

The wind often gets up and a hot putter is a must during the week. Look for those with great shot-making skills (mainly around the greens) to come to the fore. Experience counts for a lot and course management at Harbour Town is key. Jordan Spieth (24) managed to keep it in play here last year and used his stellar approach and short game to take the win. 

The Contenders

Can an outsider infiltrate the big boys in the RBC Heritage? Tom Kim might possess the perfect profile for this track, and he has a decent progressive form rating of 8.4 in my model. I might take a watching brief and see how he goes in round one before getting involved, though. 

I will also keep one eye on our man Cameron Young, whose new caddie knows this course better than most and that is worth noting.

However, I've pinpointed a few players with some nice course pedigree and strong course-fit for my value picks - and their prices are a little juicier because of the big names at the top of the market. Course-fit is huge at Harbour Town and most of those at the top of the market won’t feature, and that’s without mentioning their fatigue after the Masters. 

My first two picks are Matt Fitzpatrick (34 to win, 3.8 to finish top 10) and Shane Lowry (36 to win, 4.3 to finish top 10), who both put in good performances last week and have some solid form on Hilton Head Island over the years. 

Lowry has a couple of third-placed finishes to his name here and excels in the driving department and shot making side of the game. His course-fit for Harbour Town is 8.97 on the model and he comes here off the back of taking 16th place at Augusta.

Meanwhile, Fitzy also has some decent finishes at the RBC Heritage, including a fourth-placed finish in 2021. He comes here with a top 10 at The Masters to add to his records, and he rates an unsurprising 9.1 on the course-fit-o-meter.

Course specialists Matt Kuchar (55 to win, 5.6 to finish top 10) and Brian Harman (140 to win, 9.4 to finish top 10) were also playing well ahead of the Masters. 

The former didn’t quite make Augusta, while conditions didn’t suit Harman at all. Both absolutely love this Pete Dye track and will be looking to contend here. Veteran Matt Kuchar, will be looking for a fast start after a good performance in Texas last time out, has a handful of top-five finishes here, which includes a win, and Harman has one of the best finishing position averages in recent times at this event.

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

RBC Heritage 2023 Tips

Matt Fitzpatrick @ 34 (to win), 3.8 (to finish top 10)
Shane Lowry @ 36 (to win), 4.3 (to finish top 10)
Matt Kuchar @ 55 (to win), 5.6 (to finish top 10)
Brian Harman @ 140 (to win), 9.4 (to finish top 10)