RBC Canadian Open 2023 Tips: Home players are worth backing as Rory McIlroy defends his title

Rory McIlroy returns to defend his crown in the RBC Canadian Open, the final warm-up event before the third major of the season - The US Open - begins next Thursday. 

You can expect him to play aggressively with LA Country Club in mind, but he’s short enough at the top of the market at 6.4. McIlroy won’t be the only golfer looking to make birdies out there, and the presence of English duo Tyrell Hatton and Matt Fitzpatrick also opens up the betting for a few longshots further down.

A total of 20 Canadians are in the field, and the home charge is led by Corey Conners, Adam Svensson and Mackenzie Hughes, all of whom have won on tour this season. Swede Ludvig Aberg makes his pro debut and is an interesting player to watch.

The Course

There is a new track on show this week as Oakdale Country Club plays host. It’s a traditional parklands track - a composite from three nine-hole courses which plays around 7,200 yards to a par of 72. 

It’s a twisty track with plenty of doglegs on undulating fairways, while narrow greens are protected by rough and deep bunkering. Thick fibre also lines the fairways. Ball striking will be paramount this week and par breakers will also be on the menu.

The Contenders

Adam Hadwin (65 to win, 5.2 to finish top 10) looks to have an obvious winning chance from the home contenders and I want to keep him onside at big prices to win and place. 

He missed the cut last week, which is perhaps why he’s underrated in the market, but the Canadian is simmering formwise - he finished 40th at the US PGA Championship and recently went close with compatriot Nick Taylor in the Zurich Classic team event. 

Hadwin’s shot-shaping ability stands out for Oakdale, which requires similar attributes to the likes of Jackson Country Club and Copperhead, where Hadwin has produced his best finishes that includes a win.

Second on my list is the aforementioned Nick Taylor (85 to win, 6.4 to finish top 10), who also looks good value in this field. A couple of missed cuts were preceded by a run of strong finishes, and he only narrowly missed out in Phoenix earlier in the season. 

Taylor ranks 43rd in strokes gained tee-to-green this year and sits 27th in par breakers. Those statistics give him a strong chance this week.

Finally, David Lipsky (110 to win, 8.4 to finish top 10) is showing progressive form of 8.33 in my model after being in contention for much of the Memorial Tournament last week. He eventually settled for a share of 12th place, which followed on from a tied-16th at Colonial.

What stands out for me here is that Colonial and Muirfield Village are two of the strongest ball strikers’ courses on the rota. Lipsky is 37th in driving accuracy and 11th in approaches from 50-125 yards this year, and the putter is dialled in right now.

RBC Canadian Open 2023 Tips

Adam Hadwin @ 65 (to win), 5.2 (to finish top 10)
Nick Taylor @ 85 (to win), 6.4 (to finish top 10)
David Lipsky @ 110 (to win), 8.4 (to finish top 10)