Open Championship 2023 Tips: Homegrown talents dominate Bryan Nicholson’s picks

The 151st Open Championship graces our television screens from Thursday and I’m hoping that the final leaderboard will have a similar look to last week’s Scottish Open.

Nobody had a better prep than Scottish Open winner Rory McIlroy, who is priced as the 9.2 favourite to win back-to-back tournaments. The Northern Irishman won in fine fashion at Renaissance on a blustery Sunday and interestingly lifted the Claret Jug the last time we visited Royal Liverpool for the 2014 Open. 

Conditions that year were similar to when Tiger Woods won at Hoylake back in 2006, and the early forecast suggests it will be much the same this week. The weather and draw are so important when it comes to how Open Championships will play out.

I’m focussing on the British and Irish talent this week, more specifically the homegrown players who are trending formwise and featured high up at Renaissance Club. Links exponents and bad weather players have such an advantage in the Open Championship, albeit Hoylake can be played in a more American style in benign conditions. 

Scottie Scheffler (9.8) is the obvious standout from across the pond. He’s had seven top-five finishes in a row and is well accustomed to strong Texas winds, as well as being ranked number one on tour in ball striking. 

$3million dollars awaits the winner of the 2023 Open Championship, and Cameron Smith (21) is the defending Claret Jug champion. The Aussie comes off the back of a win at Centurion on the LIV Tour and is fourth in the market. 

The Course

Royal Liverpool will host the Open Championship for the (unlucky for some) 13th time. The course winds its way through dunes, gorse and thick fescues, and will play as a par 71 at 7,313 yards after some tweaking. This includes a brand-new par-three 17th called Little Eye, which will ensure some drama down the stretch. 

There are additional bunkers and catchment areas, which are the defence of the course. Staying out of the pot bunkers on the fairways and around the greens is paramount. There are harsher run-off areas and newer tees have been added. Internal out of bounds will be a theme this week on some dog-legged fairways, and low winning totals (-18 and -17 respectively) in the last two renewals at Hoylake were down to relatively benign conditions.

The Contenders

Tommy Fleetwood (26 to win, 3.55 to finish top 10) comes here after finishing fifth (Wells Fargo), second (Canadian Open), fifth (US Open) and tied-sixth (Renaissance). This adds up to a 9.53 progressive form rating in my model. 

Fleetwood knows this course well having grown up nearby and he’s one of the better wind players and ball strikers in the game. The Liverpudlian ranks seventh in Strokes Gained (SG): tee to green and seventh in SG: around the green. He’s also 26th in approach and 19th in scrambling. Fleetwood owns a course-fit rating of 8.87 in my model and was second to Shane Lowry at Portrush and tied-fourth last year at ST. Andrews.

My second choice is Tyrell Hatton (29 to win, 4 to finish top 10), who took 15th in the PGA and 27th in US Open. He owns four top-six finishes in his last seven events and led for a stage on the final day in Scotland last week. He is a lover of links golf and his progressive form rating is 9.8. 

Hatton ranks 19th in scrambling and 14th in strokes gained approach, while sitting 19th in tee to green and 17th in total driving. My course-fit model churns out a 9/10 rating.

Third up is Shane Lowry (40 to win, 4.6 to finish top 10), who won the aforementioned Open Championship at Royal Portrush. The Irishman also featured after three rounds in Scotland a few days ago but succumbed to a final round 73. 

Lowry has had five top 20s in his last six events, which includes the US PGA and US Open, and shows a rating of 8.87 for progressive form. He ranks 41st in ball striking, ninth in total driving, and 13th in strokes gained approach. Lowry is one of the best shotmakers around the greens and his course-fit score is a high 9.16 on the scale. 

The final name worthy of mention in this section is Robert MacIntyre (95 to win, 6.6 to finish top 10), who is currently showing the max progressive form rating of 10 in the model. He believes that he’s playing his best golf in over a year and has demonstrated his ability in the wind and British links conditions, not least with a fabulous final round of -6 in a gale on Sunday. 

As well as finishing runner-up behind McIlroy last week, he also took fourth in Himmerland, which is another links-style test. ‘Lefty’ is 19th in stroke average on the European Tour and rates 8.73 on the course-fit-o-meter.

The Outsiders

Two names pop up at huge prices in this section. Matthew Jordan (300 to win, 5.6 to finish top 20) is showing a rating of 8.94 on my progressive form model and is a Royal Liverpool member. He possesses a very strong amateur links pedigree and qualified nicely for his home Open. Jordan ranks 31st in GIR on the European tour and 15th in sand saves.

Finally, don’t discount the experienced Padraig Harrington (230 to win, 5.4 to finish top 20). A two-time winner of this event, Harrington is one of eight guys who are playing their third Open at Hoylake this week. The Irishman had a bad weekend in Scotland but was right there at halfway and seems to be simmering with an average of 30th spot in his last eight events.

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

Open Championship 2023 Tips

Tommy Fleetwood @ 26 (to win), 3.55 (to finish top 10)
Tyrell Hatton @ 29 (to win), 4 (to finish top 10)
Shane Lowry @ 40 (to win), 4.6 (to finish top 10)
Robert MacIntyre @ 95 (to win), 6.6 (to finish top 10)
Padraig Harrington @ 230 (to win), 5.4 (to finish top 20)
Matthew Jordan @ 300 (to win, 5.6 (to finish top 20)