Mexico Open 2023 Tips: Bryan Nicholson has four longshots to oppose reigning champion Rahm

We head to North America for the second edition of the Mexico Open from Vidanta Villarta, which is set in the backdrop of the Sierra Madre mountains. 

Jon Rahm recorded his only win of the 2022 PGA Tour season at this venue last year and succeeded in his ambition to grow the game in Mexico. Now he returns to defend his crown as a short 3.75 favourite while showing off his Masters’ Green Jacket that he won earlier this month.

How did Rahm win the title last year, you ask? Nine of the top 15 guys on the leaderboard last year at Vidanta ranked in the top 10 for strokes gained off the tee on a track that's ripe for profiling. Let's look at the course and what it entails.

The Course

Vidanta Vallarta plays just under 7,460 yards to a par 71, and features wide landing areas and large surfaces on a parklands type track that's exposed and open to the elements. 

Water features on several holes and greens tend to be protected by deep bunkers. Par breakers will be required on a course that reminds me of TPC Twin Cities, where ball striking is the premium. Tee-to-green is king and the guys thriving in the strokes gained off the tee department take centre stage.

The Contenders

Rahm undoubtedly deserves to be the short-priced favourite here, but who can put it up to the Spaniard?

The first player on my list is Wyndham Clark (21 to win, 3.15 to finish top 10), who owns four top-10 finishes this year and heads to Vidanta with a hugely progressive form rating of 9.46 on my model. 

He put up a strong performance with Beau Hossler last week at the Zurich Classic, where they led for much of the way without even putting a bogey on the card and eventually finishing third. Clark lies sixth in clubhead speed and 11th in driving distance in 2023, while he also rates seventh in total birdies - a concoction for success at Vidanta Vallarta.

You shouldn’t overlook Nicolai Hojgaard (36 to win, 3.85 to finish top 10) either. He is one of the biggest hitters on the European Tour and now he takes up residence on the PGA tour. I really like the Dane this week off the back of a good Zurich Classic with compatriot Thorbjorn Olesen, where they were in contention after 54 holes. 

Hojgaard owns the same rating on the progressive form model as Clark at 9.46 on the back of a runner-up spot in Punta Cana and a top-five finish in Thailand. His wins in Europe have come on resort-type scoring layouts just like Vidanta, and that strengthens my confidence that he will cause some damage here.

We are looking for big hitters this week so let's roll the dice on two distance guys who are known for their Korn Ferry Tour prowess. 

Both Vincent Norrman (110 to win, 9 to finish top 10) and Brandon Matthews (270 to win, 17 to finish top 10) led the way at the Zurich Classic for their respective teams last week. Their teams ended up finishing in the top 10, but these variables were not initially factored into the Mexico Open prices as it was not a singles event. 

Brandon Matthews is 6’4 and sits second in the driving distance stats behind Rory McIlroy, while Norrman is a little lower down in 19th. Two talented, in-form and big-priced elite bombers is just the ticket here, so why not?

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

Mexico Open 2023 Tips

Wyndham Clark @ 21 to win, 3.15 to finish top 10
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 36 to win, 3.85 to finish top 10
Vincent Norrman @ 110 to win, 9 to finish top 10
Brandon Matthews @ 270 to win, 17 to finish top 10