Masters 2023 Tips: Burns and Young headline Bryan Nicholson’s picks

It is time to head to Augusta! Anticipation and excitement is at an all-time high ahead of the first major of 2023, and the inclusion of LIV golfers adds extra spice.

A total of 18 golfers from the rival tour, which includes a handful of previous green jacket winners, will tee it up this week. However, the head of the betting is predictably dominated by the PGA tour's elite. Greens-in-regulation stat leader Scottie Scheffler (9 to win) features at the top as he bids to defend the coveted top spot in the official world golf rankings and his Masters' crown, which he won in fine style by three shots last year. 

The world number one tops my course-fit ratings for Augusta with a score of 9.55/10. His main rivals include Jon Rahm (11), who will hope to leapfrog Scheffler in the standings on a course that ideally suits the Spaniard (9.42 course-fit rating). Rahm leads the strokes gained: total and birdie average statistics heading into the week.

However, it is Rory McIlroy (8.8) who tops the betting at 8.8, which is unsurprising given he scores 9.22 on my course-fit model. Everything looks set up perfectly for the Northern Irishman, and he needs to win the Masters to complete a fantastic career grand slam. 

He’s 33 years old now, which is right around the average age for the last 20 Masters’ winners, and he’s right at the top of all the key metric stats for Augusta. Add a few equipment changes into the mix and he’s raring to go. Rory is using the new TaylorMade Stealth Plus 2 driver and has a new Scotty Cameron blade putter in the bag – similar to what he used for his last two major wins. 

He replaced the driver shaft and had it shortened by half an inch, which helped him drive it nicely in his WGC Match Play run and practice rounds at Augusta. He now ranks sixth in strokes gained off the tee and seventh in approaches. He also leads the driving distance stats with a clip of 326.6 yards, while sitting 17th in approaches from 175-200 yards, fourth in par 5 scoring average and second in birdies or better on the long holes. Soft conditions this week with forecasted low to moderate winds will suit.

The Course

A little trip down Magnolia Lane gets the juices flowing before we hit the most iconic venue in world golf. Augusta National in all its glory awaits. Amen corner and Rae's creek will look to cause havoc and add to the drama, while the 13th and 15th holes - both of which have been lengthened in the last couple of years - are the definition of risk versus reward play.

Augusta is a bomber’s track - it now plays circa 7,550 yards to a par 72. Mid-to-long iron approaches will be vital into large, segmented greens. Elevation changes throughout the course make distance control tricky, while fast and undulating greens protect the scoring. 

All of this means those with experience around Augusta are safer bets. Perhaps this is why rookies tend not to feature too strongly. Rookies struggling is a theme dissipating somewhat  in recent times, as is a trend of drawers of the ball (or right-to-left players) dominating. 

Dustin Johnson: won the Masters back in 2020

Now it’s all about raw power. The last three winners; Scheffler, Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama are all power faders of the golf ball, and they averaged 310 yards between them in driving distance in the year in which they won. 

Approaches from 175-200 yards, driving distance and par 5 scoring are the key metrics at Augusta. Putting from the four to 10 feet will be vital, with up-and-downs and lengthy lag putts extremely difficult at Augusta. With this being the case, it places even more of a premium on approach shot accuracy.

Here are the key metrics and premiums for Augusta that go into my course-fit model:

• Driving distance
• Long iron approach
• Lag putting
• Holing out
• Par 5 performance
• Scrambling
• Mentality

Note: The course fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

The Contenders

Who does the model like?

Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay are giving us a wave via the stats and Jason Day is doing his best to win promotion from the shortlist to the go-zone. Finau and Cantlay rate 9.06 and 9.5 respectively on the course-fit model, while Day comes in at 8.7. 

Fellow Aussie Min Woo Lee (8.88 rating for course fit) also gets attention in the sub-markets and could be a dark horse in the outright betting. Very interestingly, if you take out the short putting metric from the model and plug in the rest of Tony Finau’s numbers, it churns out a lofty rating of 9.67. Remember that variance plays a huge part from the short putting range at Augusta given the slopes and green speeds. This tends to negate the advantage of the better putters somewhat.

Who are the value plays?

It’s all about the value and the first player who really stands out in the market is Sam Burns (48 to win, 4.9 to finish top 10). 

Burns is a streaky player and he led the putting stats en route to his match play win in Texas. In fact, he ranked 10th for strokes gained putting last season and sits in the same position so far in 2023. Burns is a par 5 obliterator - he finished top 10 in par five birdie or better and scoring average stats on the long holes last year - and currently ranks 19th in driving distance, while scoring a 9.14 on the course-fit-o-meter. In terms of progressive form, the 26-year-old rates 9.2 on the model.

Second up is Cameron Young (36 to win, 3.75 to finish top 10). The American scores 9.33 on the progressive form scale and 9.1 for course fit - here’s why. He ranks 12th in strokes gained off the tee and 17th in strokes gained approach, third in overall driving distance and an eyecatching 11th in the key approach from the 175–200-yard range metric. 

He actually sits second in approaches from 150-175 yards, and 15th in par five birdies or better. With Webb Simpson’s old caddie Paul Tesori on the bag and a strong recent showing at the WGC Match Play, I expect Young to have a strong week.

One more for your shortlist! Sungjae Im (44 to win, 4.3 to finish top 10) might not stand out as a big hitter, but his longest drive and distance stats suggest he can get it out there when he chooses. That might explain why he sits a sneaky fourth in par 5 birdies or better.

In three appearances at the Masters, the South Korean has two top 10s, which includes a runner-up spot. That came in soft conditions and we are expecting a rain-soaked Augusta this year. Im is simmering form-wise - he has averaged around 20th in his last four outings - and ranks 15th in strokes gained off the tee.

Who can beat their odds?

Look no further than Kurt Kitayama (190 to win, 8.6 to finish top 10) for a dark horse. He won at Bay Hill, a gaff that is partial to a right-to-left flight, and is a long hitter (33rd in driving distance). 

Treat him with respect in an interesting ‘Top Debutant’ market, and sub-markets like ‘Top 10’, ‘Top 20’ and ‘First-round leader’ - win and place. Kitayama ranks 44th in approaches from 175-200 yards and is solid, if not spectacular, in various key metrics for this week. 

Masters 2023 Tips

Cam Young @ 36 (to win), 3.75 (to finish top 10)
Sungjae Im @ 44 (to win), 4.3 (to finish top 10)
Sam Burns @ 48 (to win), 4.9 (to finish top 10)
Kurt Kitayama @ 190 (to win), 8.6 (to finish top 10)