John Deere Classic 2023 Tips: Rodgers and Reavie headline Bryan Nicholson’s bets

Golf is such a fickle game - a round and, in fact, a whole tournament can turn after a short weather delay. 

A player who has had a long spell in the doldrums can also find form again and win for the first time in four years as favourite. Last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic offered up the chance for a lesser-known player to take down a PGA event, but Rickie Fowler squashed all hopes and dreams.

The John Deere Classic provides a similar opportunity for run-of-the-mill tour regulars to increase their status. Only one player from the top 30 in the world rankings will tee it up at TPC Deere Run, but a bunch of young stars including Ludvig Aberg, Gordon Sargent, and Michael Thorbjornsen will feature.

The Course

This is an old school parklands track, which plays to a par 71 and measures 7,289 yards in length. Plenty of par-breaker opportunities and risk-reward options await. 

TPC Deere Run has numerous elevation changes, and the fairways are surrounded by mounding. Big greens are protected by deep, white marble bunkering. Michael Kim holds the tournament record of 257 strokes (-27), and there is extra importance on ‘total driving’ this week with a ‘pitch-and-putt’ type element. Last week’s leaderboard is a nice guide as we are looking at a similar golf course. 

The Contenders

Patrick Rodgers (50 to win, 4.6 to finish top 10) has good form at the John Deere Classic, which includes a runner-up finish back in 2017. Six years have passed, but he seems to be near the top of his game after finishing 32nd at the US Open. 

Rodgers tends to excel with his wedges when he’s playing well, and he has been in contention in most of his recent events. Two top 30 finishes in the last two renewals here strengthen his case.

The second player of note is Chez Reavie (55 to win, 8.2 to finish top 10), who owns a strong progressive form rating of 9.4 in my model and sits 12th in the ‘proximity to the hole stat’ in 2023. 

Reavie recorded a top 30 last week at an unsuitable course, which included an impressive round three score of 65. He has a couple of top 10s to his name at this venue in the last ten years and shouldn’t be overlooked.

The Longshots

Three players at big prices have caught my eye this week and a shock result isn’t out of the question. The first is Peter Kuest (160 to win, 9 to finish top 10), who played well at Detroit Golf Club and earned himself qualification for this event. 

He will gain temporary status on the PGA Tour if he essentially makes the cut this week. The big-hitter flushed his way to a top four finish last week, courtesy of making the most of the par fives. He circled 25 par breakers in the process, which included an eagle.

I also want a part of Peter Malnati (290 to win, 9.6 to finish top 10). He finished top 10 last week in Detroit and owns several decent finishes at the John Deere Classic. Malnati is the type of player who can pop up anytime, and his best weapon (putter) can come good again on the pristine greens here.

Finally, don’t dismiss Callum Tarren (80 to win, 9 to finish top 10), who was on the leaderboard last year at the John Deere Classic with a tied-sixth placing.

Tarren has progressive finishes of 43-33-29 and shows a rating of 8.26 in my model. He’s been on the radar recently and started fast last week with back-to-back 65s on Friday and Saturday. He seems to be wrongly overlooked in the market.

John Deere Classic 2023 Tips

Patrick Rodgers @ 50 (to win), 4.6 (to finish top 10)
Chez Reavie @ 55 (to win), 8.2 (to finish top 10)
Callum Tarren @ 80 (to win), 9 (to finish top 10)
Peter Kuest @ 160 (to win), 9 (to finish top 10)
Peter Malnati @ 290 (to win), 9.6 (to finish top 10)