Joburg Open Preview: Can Dan Bradbury go back-to-back?

It was a nice way to finish the season proper last week with Nicolai Hojgaard’s win in Dubai at an inflated price. We’ve a handful of events left to cover as we near the Christmas break. First up is the Joburg Open from Houghton GC and we saw this venue last year with Dan Bradbury making his breakthrough. Ironically, Dan is one of the form men on the tour right now so no wonder he’s been instilled as one of the Joburg Open favourites. Old South African stalwarts; Dean Burmester, 10.0, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, 13.0, and Branden Grace, 14.5, lead the market but there’s plenty of reasons to oppose these guys.

The Course

Joburg is at altitude and Houghton GC is a tree lined, risk and reward style parklands test where scoring should be very low. Houghton GC looks like it will play to a par of 70 this year at around 7,200 yards. We have the usual brown South African sands filling the bunkers and we can hear that wonderful thud of the ball when the pros strike the sand and splash out. Lakes are a feature and there will be some sucker pin positions close to the waterside. It’s more a case of accuracy over power this week where plotters may rise to the top of the board.

The Contenders

I mentioned defending champ Dan Bradbury 17.0 or 3.05 being one of the real form men on tour right now and form of 6-13-5-17 means he’s carrying a progressive form rating of 9.67 out of 10 in my model. It might not look the biggest of prices but in this company, we’ll stick towards the top of the market. 42nd in driving accuracy and 32nd in greens in reg show he has the skills for Houghton GC.

Thriston Lawrence 17.5 or 3.15 is another man rounding into form with a rating of 9.33 on my progressive form model. The South Africans have a great record in these events and the big man ranks 35th in driving accuracy, 34th in GIR and 24th in putts per GIR. The 27-year-old already has 4 wins to his name on the DP World Tour including the Joburg Open, and he comes here off the back of a 5th place in Dubai.

Spaniard Adrian Otaegui 23.0 or 3.60 hasn’t played at Houghton GC yet, but he owns the trending form of 33-18 coming to Joburg. Adrian closed 68-66 last weekend and has strong pedigree on strategic courses where accuracy and a neat short game is required. The Spaniard is 1st in driving accuracy and 2nd in scrambling on tour in 2023 which is the profile we are looking for at Houghton GC. 

Recommended Bets 

Back Dan Bradbury to win @ 17.0 or t10 @ 3.05
Back Thriston Lawrence to win @ 17.5 or t10 @ 3.15
Back Adrian Otaugui to win @ 23.0 or t10 @ 3.60