Honda Classic 2023 Tips: Bryan Nicholson has three picks for this week’s PGA Tour event

There have been several exciting battles at the top of the leaderboard in recent events, a trend that might continue in the Honda Classic as the PGA Tour heads to Florida.

An $8.4million purse here is a lot lighter than what is on offer in the elevated status tournaments, so it’s worth noting that this week’s field lacks some of the sport’s stars. Jon Rahm has dominated proceedings so far in 2023, but the new world number one will take a break and give some of the other guys a chance! 

The market is headed by Sung-Jae Im and Shane Lowry, who both have a strong record at the Honda Classic. They are available at 10.5 and 17.5 respectively, but I want to look further down the list to find a couple of value bets using my model. Let’s take a look at the course and some of the contenders.

The Course

Honda Classic 2023 will be played at the fabulous PGA National, which really deserves a better grade of field. The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus and is renowned for its infamous ‘Bear Trap’ through holes 15, 16 and 17, where all sorts of numbers can be made with the water in play.

Florida golf is all about tee-to-green execution and the wind often gets up. Ball striking is key at PGA National, where the Bermuda and Rye rough is usually lengthy and penal - it’s basically an automatic half-shot penalty on average if you stray from the short grass. Crosswinds play a huge part on angled tee shots into fairways.

The Contenders

So, who might prosper at the Honda Classic? This week’s event is wide open, but all three of my picks are progressing nicely into form and have some good course history. It's all about ball striking and tee-to-green prowess as tucked pins are a theme. Strong long iron play and Bermuda putting is a big advantage.

Let’s start with Adam Svensson (40 to win, 4.4 to finish top 10), who is playing his way into form and boasts good PGA National form having won a Web.com qualifying event on the Champion course back in 2015. 

Svensson won the RSM Classic at the back end of last year and has a progressive form rating of 8.6. He also finished tied-9th here in the Honda Classic last season. In 2022, Svensson ranked circa 40th in both strokes-gained-approach and driving accuracy, and seventh in approaches from 150-175 yards – a key metric this week.

Next up is Denny McCarthy (30 to win, 3.9 to finish top 10). The American has some solid course form and possesses the exact profile I’m looking for - an accurate driver with plotting skills, and one of the best putters in the game from short to medium range. 

His course-fit rating is 8.5 and he ranked second in strokes gained putting in 2022. McCarthy has two top 10s here including a third-place finish in 2021. He rates an 8.8 in the progressive form department following a 14th-place finish at the Genesis Invitational. 

Finally, don’t overlook Byeong-Hun An (65 to win, 6 to finish top 10), who also owns a course-fit rating of 8.5 and rates a 10 in the long iron and scrambling departments (he loses points on putting). 

The 31-year-old looked to be playing some better golf before a couple of weeks off - he recorded finishing positions of 12-41-62-37 in his last four tournaments - and has two recent top-five finishes to his name here in the Honda Classic.

Ryan Palmer (85 to win) and Lee Hodges (50 to win) were the last two names off my shortlist. Palmer has an exemplary record at PGA National, often comes out of the blocks fast and his ball striking and wind play is right up there with the best. While Hodges recorded a top-10 at the Honda Classic last year and was in contention last week.

Note: The course fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

Honda Classic 2023 Tips

Denny McCarthy @ 30 (win) and 3.9 (to finish in the top 10)
Adam Svensson @ 40 (win) and 4.4 (to finish in the top 10)
Byeong-Hun An @ 65 (win) and 6 (to finish in the top 10)