Genesis Invitational Tips: Fading machines and ball strikers should dominate

The elevated status of the WM Phoenix Open enticed the PGA Tour’s stars, and the event certainly didn’t disappoint as a handful of the biggest names contested the inflated purse.

Those top players, including last week’s champion and new World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler, now move on to Riviera and The Genesis Invitational for another big tournament, and they have picked up another interesting recruit along the way. 

Tiger Woods is returning to competition golf at one of his favourite courses to tee it up, and he enters the market at 250 - perhaps the biggest price he has ever been listed at during his career. Not only does he have personal matters to overcome, but this field looks stacked with 19 of the world’s top 20 competing for the $20 million purse.

The Course

What will it take to shine at Riviera Country Club? The Riv is known as a ball strikers’ playground that favours a fade off the tips, and big hitters have an advantage if the course is playing soft. 

Three-time tournament winner Bubba Watson famously took all sorts of lines off the tee when successful, claiming that coming from the rough or even other fairways from approach shots made it easier to access tucked pins behind deep bunkers on elevated surfaces. 

Poa greens with pins perched on slopes make Riviera one of the tracks with most three putts from short range. Aesthetically, we are talking Augusta’s little sister with pristine green and white fairways and sands respectively, along with pine straw and elevation changes. 

The Genesis Invitational is what I refer to as ‘The Grand National of golf’, where the last man standing will ball strike the field into submission. Kikuyu grass makes the short game tricky, and par fives will be key to shooting a low score.

The Contenders

Adam Scott (75 to win, 6.2 to finish top 10) has often been the man to beat here. The Australian loves Riviera and his tee-to-green prowess on this track is second to none. 

He has seen a return to form of late and carries a progressive form rating of 9.13. His Course-fit score is 8.57, but he drops the points in the short game department. Winner at Riviera in 2005 and 2020, Scott owns five top 10s here in recent years, which also includes a runners-up finish.

If we look at the last two Genesis Invitational leaderboards, the protagonists are made up of fading machines and ball strikers, and I have a trio of guys with strong current form who tick both boxes. 

Approaches with the mid-to-long irons is a premium at Riviera and Collin Morikawa (25 win/3.2 top 10) stands out in this department. The American ranks third in strokes-gained-approach in 2022, and he recorded a second-place finish here last year. Morikawa has a progressive form rating of 9.2.

I also want to have a dabble on Tony Finau (19 win/2.76 top 10), who lost out in a playoff to Max Homa two years ago at the Genesis Invitational. Big Tony plays with a strict left-to-right flight off the tee and is one of the best iron players on tour, ranking fifth in Greens In Regulation and 12th in approaches last year. 

His Riviera course-fit rating is a whopping 9.79 and he is simmering formwise with 16th-place finish being his worst in his last five starts following a victory in Houston. It gives me confidence that he warmed up nicely in Phoenix last week.

Finally, Viktor Hovland (36 win/3.9 top 10) falls into the same category with a 100% top five strike-rate from two appearances at the Riv. He owns a course-fit rating of 9.07 and scores a 10 in the long iron department. Hovland ranked second on tour last year in the mid-to-long iron range, and he appears to be finding form again after a win in the early part of the season.

The Genesis Invitational Tips

Tony Finau @ 19 (win) and 2.76 (to finish in the top 10)
Collin Morikawa @ 25 (win) and 3.2 (to finish in the top 10)
Viktor Hovland @ 36 (win) and 3.9 (to finish in the top 10)
Adam Scott @ 75 (win) and 6.2 (to finish in the top 10)