FedEx St. Jude Championship Tips: It's all about the short game at Southwind

Only 70 players survived the cutoff and made it into the Playoffs at TPC Southwind this week. Then it’s down to 50 and finally whittled down to 30 players pegging it up for the season finale at Eastlake which is the last of three FedEx Cup Playoffs events. The big three in the world rankings lead the FedEx Cup standings and they also lead the FedEx St. Jude Championship betting market. Jon Rahm is priced at 10.5, Scottie Scheffler is the favourite at 8.0 and Rory McIlroy is 11.5.

It’s tough to find value in betting heats like this but when you look deeper into the course history stats at TPC Southwind, it does stand out as a track where the big boys can slip up. Many favourites have bombed here over the years, and lesser names have battled it out for the title, so we’ll try for some value further down the field.

The Course

First, what type of test does the course offer and why have the better players been tripping up more often than their world rankings and strokes gained stats would suggest? Well, it makes sense. TPC Southwind is a par 70 playing over 7,200 yards with only two par fives and driver is not a prerequisite here.

With alternating depths of rough down the years in this tournament in its different guises, the key has been to keep it in the fairway, then approach play takes precedence, but arguably it’s largely about the short game. With small Bermuda surfaces in tow, shot making around the greens is going to play a big part here and indeed TPC Southwind is renowned as a shot maker’s paradise.

Daniel Berger would agree: He’s got one of the best short games in the business and he’s won twice at TPC Southwind. It’s also a risk reward track with danger lurking for errant shots.

The Contenders

Tony Finau 42 or 4.40 Top 10 is showing progressive form the last three years at TPC Southwind culminating with a Top 5 finish in 2022. Maybe he’s getting to grips with the course, and he comes to the St. Jude Championship off the back of a T7 at the 3M Open. Finau is now a regular winner on Tour and his price looks big relative to the field here. Big Tony has a course fit rating of 8.67 on my model. He’s 7th in strokes gained approach and 23rd in around the green performance this year.

Big Sepp Straka 55 or 5.6 Top 10 won convincingly at the John Deere Classic closing with a round of 62 and he backed that up by offering a ball striking masterclass at Hoylake leading to a T2 finish at the Open. He’s now ranked 24th in the world. Sepp tied 3rd here last season and the Austrian is trying to land a Ryder Cup spot for the Europeans. Straka finished T7 at the PGA Championship this year. He is currently 15th in the FedEx Cup standings, ranking 21st in Total Driving and 15th in strokes gained approach this year.

Harris English 95 or 7.4 Top 10 has a mixed bag of results at TPC Southwind with a win, a Top 5 and a Top 10 backed up by indifferent showings. He says he loves a treelined track and a T8 at the US Open suggests his injury problems may be behind him. Good friend Brian Harman took down the Open Championship and English will be looking to add a prestigious title of his own to the coffers. 33rd at Wyndham last week with two rounds in the mid-sixties have Harris in good shape going into the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Andrew Putnam 170 or 9.2 Top 10 is a man with some sneaky course history here and he’s simmering current form wise. Putnam finished T5 at Memorial and has then averaged 40th spot in his last five events, two of which were majors. This leads to a progressive form rating of 8.4/10 in my model. He’s loitering up at a lofty 64th in the Official World Golf Rankings and owns a 2nd and 5th place finish in his last three visits to TPC Southwind.

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Tips

Tony Finau to win @ 42 or 4.4 Top 10
Sepp Straka to win @ 55 or 5.6 Top 10
Harris English to win @ 95 or 7.4 Top 10
Andrew Putnam to win @ 170 or 9.2 Top 10