Cognizant Classic Preview: McIlroy leads the field in Florida

The first of a four-week stretch in Florida takes us to Palm Beach Gardens and the newly named Cognizant Classic. PGA National’s Champion course and the regular host of the Honda Classic will test the best. The next signature event comes in March with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, while the season's fifth major, the Players Championship, has now cemented its new spot in the golfing calendar.

The FedEx Cup points list has been reset for the Signature Events, meaning the Aon Next 10 will be made up of numbers one to ten in the standings not already exempt. The Aon Swing 5 will encompass the best 5 players from the events preceding the Arnold Palmer Invitational who are not qualified through alternative routes.

There are 500 FedEx Cup points and $9 million on offer at the Cognizant Classic and leading the market at 9.8 is Rory McIlroy. Cameron Young follows behind with course specialist Russell Henley priced at 23.0. Matt Fitzpatrick looks to be the standout odds of the market leaders at 38.0.

The Course

The course and test at PGA National are all about the tee-to-green game. PGA National plays circa 7,150 yards to a par 71 and putting from 5-15 feet on smallish Bermuda surfaces is a premium. The wind usually gets up and penal Bermuda rough (overseeded with rye) means stay away. There's a theme at the Cognizant Classic of fairway finders that play with a baby draw doing well. Chris Kirk and Matt Jones are two of the last three winners here and that's their modus operandi. Watch out for the Bear Trap as we reach the finish – a trio of golf holes that will shape the tournament, especially if it blows!

The Contenders

PGA National requires a particular skill set so any course history here is worth more than your regular PGA tour event in terms of predictive value. Byeong Hun An 30.0 or 4.30 is one of those who stands out at the track with two recent top five’s to his name at the course. An is rounding back into form having secured a top 20 finish at the Genesis Invitational and on my model his progressive form rating is 9/10. “Benny” is a renowned flusher of the irons, and he faces a second shot course. He’s 21st in strokes gained tee to green in 2024 so far.

At twice the price of An, Christiaan Bezuidenhout 55.0 or 7.0 is also a strong value play at the Cognizant Classic this week. Again, flushing the irons and finding fairways is the theme and Bez is a tidy golfer ranking third in strokes gained approach. The South African is simmering now with three top 30s in his last three. He almost won the American Express earlier in the year but settled for runner-up plaudits. Bezuidenhout has gone 25-42 on the Champion course suggesting he likes this type of test.

Let’s take a chance on a resurgent Rickie Fowler at 80.0 or 10.0 despite his lack of current results in 2024. Last year saw Rickie return to the form of old and when in full flow he dominated PGA National. The American bagged a win, a runner-up spot, and another sixth place finish in four straight years here. Fowler is a ball-striking supremo with a strong wind pedigree and when he won at the track, he holed everything in the 5–15-foot range. 

Recommended Bets

Back Byeong Hun An to win @ 30.0 or top 10 @ 4.30
Back Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win @ 55.0 or t10 @ 7.0
Back Rickie Fowler to win @ 80.0 or t10 @ 10.0