Charles Schwab Challenge 2023 Tips

Ball strikers came to the fore in what was a very enjoyable PGA Championship last week, which was hosted at a great venue in Oak Hill.

There was little in the way of betting returns for regular readers of this column, although Patrick Cantlay managed to sneak into the top 10 on Sunday. Next stop on the calendar is Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge, which has attracted a strong field despite not being a designated event.

Two guys stand out with local ties and it’s not surprising to see them at the top of the market. “I think the results show that I love this place,” said Jordan Spieth when he last visited. He’s available at 15 in the market and is only behind Scottie Scheffler (5.5) in terms of favouritism. Defending champion Sam Burns is available at a meaty 34.

The Course

Colonial Country Club is a Par 70 that measures 7,209 yards, and there’s 500 FedEx Cup points on offer for the winner. It’s a tight tree-lined track with narrow entrances to long Bentgrass greens, which are generally protected by bunkers. Colonial CC turns both ways and incorporates the ‘horrible horseshoe’ – a tough stretch through holes three, four and five.

Placement is a premium around Colonial, but regulars around here will take different lines off the tee. The length of the Bermuda rough usually dictates scoring around Colonial and the Texas winds can certainly brew. Approach shot accuracy and a hot putter is required on one of the tour’s pitch-and-putt tracks.

The Contenders

Just the three names this week. First up is Ryan Palmer (180 to win, 10.5 to finish top 10), who has played the Colonial course more than anyone in the field and is a member here. That’s worth a handful of strokes over a 72-hole tournament given the different lines he can take off the markers.

After a nicely priced top 10 finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship a couple of weeks ago, I will be sticking with the Texan to come up trumps again. He owns a course-fit rating of 8.54 and progressive form of 8.47 in my models.

Another who plays Colonial well is Chris Kirk (44 to win, 5.7 to finish top 10), a former winner here who owns a progressive form rating of 8.53. He has collected a top 30 finish in two of his last four major Championships, so he is trending nicely, and he has the strategic game and knowledge of the course on his side.

Kirk is down as one to watch for the Charles Schwab Challenge in my profiling manual and another man who joins him there is Tom Hoge (110 to win, 8.6 to finish top 10). The American lies third in the strokes gained: approach stats and is another with Texas ties. He has performed well around this venue before and is both 43rd in driving accuracy and second in proximity.

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.