BMW Championship Tips: Look for big hitters at Olympia Fields

If you’ve ever doubted progressive and current form, the last fortnight on the PGA tour is just another demonstration of how it works. A golfer is only as good as their current form, not their name and this is why anyone can win, and the favourites shouldn’t always be the favourites. 

Who is to say Lucas Glover shouldn’t have been half his opening price and further up the betting for the St. Jude Championship following his win at Wyndham the week previous? Lucas is now closing in on a Ryder Cup spot and he lies 4th in the FedEx Cup standings behind the big three. 

The top 50 advance to Olympia Fields for the BMW Championship and get all the perks that go with it ahead of the new revamped season. All these guys now qualify automatically for the lucrative signature events next year.

The Course

The North Course has seen deepened bunkers and additional length added over the years, but it doesn’t hit our screens too much these days. Olympia Fields made a cameo back in 2020 and the North course is a par 70 playing over 7,353 yards. The course record is 63, shared by Rickie Fowler and Vijay Singh. Olympia Fields is a “big boy” course with white marble bunkering, a thick treeline and deep rough lining the fairways. 

The Contenders

Who can contend at Olympia fields? I’m looking straight towards the bigger hitters, and this is a more suitable course than TPC Southwind for the big guns. There’s a good chance Rahm 11.5, Rory 8.8 or Scottie 9.4 will take this down while Patrick Cantlay 13.5 has suddenly sprung into form again following playoff defeat last week. The 2021 holder of the FedEx Cup is looking to regain his crown from McIlroy. Only 5 of 70 players finished under par in the BMW Championship 2020 where Jon Rahm was victorious in a playoff over Dustin Johnson in. Note: two of the biggest hitters in the game and both are strong in the total driving department when on form.

I like Tony Finau (55.0 or 5.0 top 10) this week who was one of these five players to shoot in red digits and he owns a strong course fit rating here at Olympia Fields. Finau is a big drifter in the market due to some simmering form but this track is right up his street. Big Tony is 6th in strokes gained tee to green, 6th in approach and 19th in total driving. Watch this space.

Collin Morikawa (32.0 or 4.0) closed with back-to-back 68s that week in the 2020 BMW Championship and has gone back to his normal style of play. He opened with a 65 at TPC Southwind, carded 3 rounds in the sixties and tied for 13th. He was 2nd in the Rocket Mortgage Classic a few weeks prior. When tee to green is the brief and especially proximity with the irons, the two-time major champ is always worth a look. Morikawa ranks 2nd in approach, 4th in tee to green play and 5th in proximity this year and he’s really simmering right now at a nice price. 

Last of my three this week must be Justin Rose at a big price of 80.0 or 7.6 top 10. There’s a little bit of Merion GC at Olympia Fields and this sets up perfectly for Rose who is 14th in the all-round stats (SG: Total) this year. Interestingly he’s 8th in proximity and his high ball flight will suit Olympia Fields for the BMW Championship. Rose was T20 at St. Jude after starting with a horrendous 76 for last place after day one. He hit a 61 on day three. A recent top 10 at the PGA Championship shows his game is there and he was also 4th in the British Masters.

Recommended bets

Tony Finau to win @ 55.0 or 5.0 to finish in the Top 10
Collin Morikawa to win @ 32.0 or 4.0 to finish in the Top 10
Justin Rose to win @ 80.0 or 7.6 to finish in the Top 10