AT&T Byron Nelson 2023 Tips: Oppose Scheffler with five outsiders in Texas

We have entered the last chance saloon for golfers looking to book their spot in next week’s PGA Championship as the tour heads to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee - more commonly known as KH Lee - knows all about the trials and tribulations of the Byron Nelson after shooting -25 in 2021 and -26 in 2022 to win back-to-back editions of this $9million tournament. 

Lee loves a TPC course and he’s looking for the elusive threepeat here on the back of a top 10 at Quail Hollow. The second major championship of the season is firmly on the horizon and plenty of the world's best are taking this week off, but Texas resident Scottie Scheffler will tee it up and he rightly heads the market at a skinny 4.8. 

Plenty of the field will be hoping to beat him and grab that final spot for the PGA Championship by taking down the Byron Nelson title.

The Course

TPC tracks generally play pretty easy and Craig Ranch is no different. In fact, it has played the easiest TPC course of all since its emergence on tour. It’s a pushover without wind, but tougher weather conditions are expected this week in Texas. 

TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 that plays just over 7,400 yards. It is equipped with generous landing areas and larger than average bentgrass greens that incorporate run-offs. Birdies will be the target, but watch out for the signature par 3 17th hole which adds to the drama down the stretch - it almost mimics the 16th at TPC Scottsdale.

The Contenders

First on my shortlist this week is Seamus Power (48 to win, 4.7 to finish top 10), who loves TPC Craig Ranch and should be well suited by the adverse weather conditions that are set to blow in. 

Two appearances here have seen him finish tied-ninth and tied-17th, but he could have performed better than that given he was in the fight on each occasion before fading on the final day. A scoring average of 67.5 in his eight rounds at this venue tells its own story and big-hitting Power returned to form with a top 20 at Quail Hollow last week.

I also want to support Taylor Montgomery (50 to win, 5.1 to finish top 10), a new name on the PGA Tour this year who often crops up high in the betting in the B-grade events. 

He started the season on fire and his best performances have come in low-scoring events. Taylor ranks third in strokes gained putting and fourth in total birdies this year, while he also recorded a top 25 last time the tour was in Texas at the Valero Open.

Texan Ryan Palmer (210 to win, 10 to finish top 10) has claimed to be the unofficial record holder at TPC Craig Ranch in the past and could be worth a few quid at big odds. 

Palmer is finding a bit of form of late and he sat second after day one of the Wells Fargo Championship last week, before eventually closing out in 35th. Palmer secured a top five finish at Craig Ranch last season and carded a 62 in the process, and he fits the bill of a big-hitting birdie maker and par breaker.

I’ll throw two more resident Texans into the mix for TPC Craig Ranch - both have found form again this year after being in the doldrums for a few seasons. Michael Kim (75 to win, 6.4 to finish top 10) has a progressive form rating of 9.2 in my model while fellow (native) Texan Jimmy Walker (140 to win, 8.6 to finish top 10) rates a 9, with four top 25 finishes in recent events. 

Both players impressed at the Wells Fargo Championship with tied-seventh and tied-14th spots respectively. Kim set the low-score record (-27) for a tournament when he blitzed the field at the John Deere Classic in 2018, and an outsider could easily take the Byron Nelson Championship and book their spot at Oak Hill for the PGA Championship.

AT&T Byron Nelson Tips

Seamus Power @ 48 (to win), 4.7 (to finish top 10)
Taylor Montgomery @ 50 (to win), 5.1 (to finish top 10)
Michael Kim @ 75 (to win), 6.4 (to finish top 10)
Jimmy Walker @ 140 (to win), 8.6 (to finish top 10)
Ryan Palmer @ 210 (to win), 10 (to finish top 10)