Arnold Palmer Invitational: Scheffler and McIlroy lead the market in Bay Hill

Signature Events are prominent on the PGA Tour and the next one comes in the shape of the Arnold Palmer Invitational from Bay Hill. One of the most volatile courses on the rotation will host the limited field boasting a $20 million purse just a few weeks after Hideki Matsuyama lit up our screens at the Genesis Invitational. That means the Aon Swing 5 for Bay Hill will be formed from just a couple of tournaments, and the Aon Next 10 is now the top 10 in this year’s FedEx Cup points list.

Leading the market are the deadly duo of Scottie Scheffler, 8.4, and Rory McIlroy, 11.0, who both have wins to their name at Bay Hill, and we have 700 FedEx Cup points on offer for the winner. Victor Hovland is third in the betting at 20.0 and the Norwegian has performed better at Arnie’s place since some of the green surrounds had rough added to the mown areas.

The Course

The Bay Hill course is a par 72 playing around 7,450 yards. It’s a championship-style test that usually provides a tough, fast, and firm exam. If the wind gets up, carnage can ensue. An Arnold Palmer-designed risk and reward track equipped with severe water trouble throughout favours those with a right-to-left shot shape. Long hitters can put the big stick back in the bag, it’s the mid to long irons at a premium in Arnie’s. 

Par 5 performance is also big in the key metric department, and we are looking for a ball-striking specialist ranking highly from tee to green. Strong par threes, run-outs, and run-offs are also a theme. The course winds through the lakes and deep bunkering, and the variable depth of the Bermuda (overseeded with Rye) rough defends the scoring.

The Contenders

Min-Woo Lee, 50.0 or 4.2, put in quite the performance last year at the Players Championship and he spent last Monday coming up on the rail at PGA National for a runner-up spot. So, if you believe in biorhythms and ball strikers, the Aussie may be the value man ahead of the next two Florida-based events and we can get him at 50.0 for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Min Woo was in the final pairing with Sheffler at the Players Championship last year and owns four wins internationally.

Corey Conners, 70.0 or 4.7, is a course specialist at Bay Hill where his last three finishes are 3-11-21. The Canadian is a regular near the top of the tee to green and ball striking stats and he’s fourth in greens in regulation and third in ball striking respectively so far in 2024. Conners is simmering form-wise and closed with a round of -5 at the Cognizant Classic. If the wind blows, it’s even better for the two-time PGA Tour winner.

Let’s stick with Rickie Fowler 85.0 or 8.0, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout, 140.0 or 7.0, at the Arnold Palmer Invitational as both showed signs of form at the Cognizant Classic. Fowler was in contention for a place before the break in play on Sunday and Bez was right in the mix until he got trapped by the bear late on Friday and missed the cut on the number. 

Finding fairways and top ball striking is their forte and both players have form at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and in Florida. The South African ranks seventh in strokes gained approach this year and Fowler was seventh in that department in 2023.

Recommended Bets

Back Min-Woo Lee to win @ 50.0 or t10 @ 4.2
Back Corey Conners to win @ 70.0 or t10 @ 4.7
Back Rickie Fowler to win @ 85.0 or t10 @ 8.0
Back Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win @ 140.0 or t10 @ 7.0