Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips: Hatton heads Bryan Nicholson’s quartet this week

We return to the designated events schedule this week on the PGA Tour as 44 of the world's highest-ranked 50 golfers descend upon Arnie's Place at Bay Hill and Lodge. 

The Arnold Palmer Invitational field will battle it out for a mouthwatering $20 million purse and the winner will crucially receive 550 Fedex Cup points. 

Scottie Scheffler continued his hot streak last year when he won this event with a score of five-under, while four-under was the winning total from Tyrell Hatton two years previous at Bay Hill when the wind howled. Fast, firm and blustery conditions are expected again this week.

The Course

Bay Hill is a Par-72 course that measures 7,466 yards in length. We know from last week's preview of the Honda Classic that Florida golf is all about ball striking and tee-to-green play, and the weather and set-up tends to dictate the scoring total here.

Mid-to-long irons are the real premium at Bay Hill and par-five scoring is crucial. A neat short game doesn't go amiss either, although thick rough around the greens has now largely replaced the run-offs and mown areas.

The Contenders

The Arnold Palmer Invitational has attracted its strongest field to date and there’s a ‘major’ feel about the betting. Rory McIlroy boasts an extremely strong record at this course and he’s second in the market behind the in-form Jon Rahm. It's going to be hard for players to infiltrate the top of the standings, but let's look down the pack for some value nevertheless.

Much like McIlroy, Tyrell Hatton (44 to win, 4.3 to finish top 10) loves this track. The Englishman won at Arnie’s Place in 2020 and recorded a runner-up spot last season – both in tough conditions. He owns another top-four finish here as well. It’s no coincidence as he possesses all the attributes to tame Bay Hill, as well as grit and determination. 

When we plug Hatton’s numbers into the course-fit model it churns out an 8.7 rating. He also excels on links tracks, which means he can handle the wind at the API. The 31-year-old heads into the event with a couple of top 10s in his last four appearances.

Second up is Chris Kirk (110 to win, 5.5 to finish top 10), who has been a real inspiration since his return from mental health and alcohol issues. The American was rewarded at the Honda Classic with his first victory in eight years and we can assume that he will take this form onto the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he has a stunning record of five top-15 finishes in his last six appearances. 

Kirk plays with a baby draw, which performs so efficiently at Bay Hill. He also scores a 9.73 in the progressive form department going into the event.

Another player that I’ve marked for Bay Hill is Corey Conners (140 to win, 9.2 to finish top 10) due to his tee-to-green proficiency - the Canadian comes in at a 9.15 in my ratings. 

Conners put in a strong challenge here in 2021 when he finished third, and he was also close-up in 11th last season. The 31-year-old is a regular at the top end of the strokes-gained-approach stats, too.

Finally, I must give a nod in the direction of South African Christiaan Bezuidenhout (290 to win, 10 to finish top 10), who also owns a great course pedigree with three top-20s here from three appearances. His 18th-placed finish in 2020 doesn’t tell the whole story, either, as he was fourth heading into the final day. 

Bez excels in the long iron and scrambling departments. He’s currently fourth in strokes gained around the green and ranked in the top 25 in approaches from 150 to 200 yards last season. 

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Tips

Tyrell Hatton @ 44 (to win) and 4.3 (to finish in the top 10)
Chris Kirk @ 110 (to win) and 5.5 (to finish in the top 10)
Corey Conners @ 140 (to win) and 9.2 (to finish in the top 10)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ 290 (to win) and 10 (to finish in the top 10)