3M Open 2023 Tips: Straka and Champ stand out on a course that should favour big hitters

This week is tailor made for the big-hitters and birdie makers on tour - it’s an all-around different test to what last week’s Open Championship offered up.

Brian Harman’s victory at Royal Liverpool showed that course fit is one of the most important factors in golf betting. We also saw how variables such as weather and the inclusion of pot bunkers can throw up some big-priced winners and placers in major strength fields.

We can play the fatigue factor this week with several guys towards the top of the market on their way back from Liverpool. Tony Finau (19.5) defends his 3M Open title, while Cameron Young, who featured at the top of the Hoylake leaderboard, leads the SBK market at 16. 

Ludvig Aberg and Nicolai Hojgaard are two big-hitting debutants worth watching, but they just missed out on my shortlist.

The Course

As I’ve already mentioned, big-hitters are well suited to TPC Twin Cities. Since this course was put on the rota, Matthew Wolff, Tony Finau and Cameron Champ – three of the biggest hitters on the circuit – have all claimed the title.

TPC Twin cities is a par 71 playing over 7,400 yards. Water features throughout on this risk-reward set-up, where making birdies and par breakers will be the brief. It’s very much a case of ‘go low or go home’ here. 

There’s a premium on the mid irons, and players must avoid the short-side and thick fibre around the greens on approach. The par 5s will play a big part in scoring and a premium is placed on the Strokes gained off the tee statistic.

The Contenders

Sepp Straka (29 to win, 3.95 to finish top 10) might be feeling tired from his Royal Liverpool venture, but he’s a perfect fit for the track and hard to ignore given his current form. 

Straka was absolutely striping it at Hoylake and the Austrian is renowned for going low and making plenty of par breakers. Crucially, Straka is 14th in SG: approach and 18th in Total Driving. 

Former 3M Open winner Cameron Champ (80 to win, 8 to finish top 10) has finally found a bit of form this season and is a big price at a track that he obviously loves. Champ ranks 25th in strokes gained off the tee, fourth in driving distance, and makes par breakers for fun. 

His win here last season was followed by a top 20, and it’s interesting that the American finished tied-17th at Barracuda last week.

Who better for the third pick than big-hitter and early leader of the putting and birdie stats, Taylor Montgomery (140 to win, 8.6 to finish top 10). Taylor ranks 10th in birdie average and 18th in total birdies, as well as sitting 42nd in par 5 performance. 

This is a bit of a shot in the dark given he’s missed some cuts recently and is making his debut at the course, but I’ll take a flier at a triple-digit price.

Finally, add Will Gordon (140 to win, 8.6 to finish top 10), who is fifth in total birdies, 21st in strokes gained off the tee and 21st in driving distance. Gordon also ranks 14th in par 5 performance and showed some excellent form earlier in the season.

A top 25 at Renaissance Club for the Scottish Open showed that his form might be returning and this course should fit nicely.

3M Open 2023 Tips

Sepp Straka @ 29 (to win), 3.95 (to finish top 10)
Cameron Champ @ 80 (to win), 8 (to finish top 10)
Taylor Montgomery @ 140 (to win), 8.6 (to finish top 10)
Will Gordon @ 140 (to win), 8.6 (to finish top 10)