World Cup Playoff Tips: Squad depth can help Croatia take third
By Robin Bairner
Croatia v Morocco Odds16 December 2022
For Croatia and Morocco, this World Cup will end as it began: with a match against each other.
After a dull and scoreless draw in the group stage, they face off in the more glamorous third and fourth-place playoff – a match that no one really wants to feature in, but for these two proud nations it represents a chance of footballing history.
Croatia may have fallen short of reaching a second World Cup final in as many tournaments, but they have once again exceeded expectations and further established themselves as a country that punches well above its weight in the footballing arena.
Morocco, meanwhile, became the first African side to reach the World Cup semi-finals and now they aim for a place on the podium to complete a thrilling month.
Dream is over
Croatia saw an undefeated run stretching 11 matches end in the semi-final, in which they were defeated 3-0 by Argentina. It was an unflattering end to the tournament for the Croats, but there was also a sense that their ageing side had simply gone one match too far.
Leaning heavily on the defensive talents of Josko Gvardiol and the match-management of Luka Modric, Croatia reached the final four despite winning one match by regular means. That was a 4-1 win over a modest Canadian side.
Croatia, who finished third in 1998 when they defeated the Netherlands (2-1), have never conceded a World Cup goal against an African side in three previous meetings. They beat Cameroon (4-0), and Nigeria (2-0) in the two previous editions of this tournament.
Heart of an Atlas Lion
Morocco’s World Cup run has been the stuff of fairytales. The North African side was not expected to negotiate a group stage in which they faced Belgium and Canada as well as Croatia, then followed a momentous success against Spain on penalties and a shock victory over Portugal. France proved too good – but not after a serious fight.
Like their opponents, their strength has been overwhelmingly defensive. This was emphasised as they restricted Croatia to just five shots in the previous meeting against the Europeans last month. They have, however, suffered with injuries and Romain Saiss and Nayef Aguerd, their starting centre-backs, are unlikely to be fit for this game.
Morocco coped well without this pair for the majority of their semi-final, with their team spirit to the fore.
Old habits die hard
World Cup third-place matches are typically more laidback affairs than what’s gone before them - goals come as standard. Indeed, England’s 2-0 loss against Belgium in 2018 was the first time in 10 editions that the game had not produced at least 2.5 goals.
Form is a stronger indicator than history, though, and this is liable to be a match that both these nations want to contest. National pride is on the line, and veering away from their usual habits will be hard. At 1.99, under 2.5 goals looks a good bet.
If you’re looking for a match winner, Croatia’s greater squad depth should give them an advantage and they are available at 2.44.