World Cup 2022 tipsheet: Don’t miss Tom Collins’ four bets on Wednesday

Wednesday brings an end to Groups C and D at the World Cup, and tipster Tom Collins has previewed all four matches as well as providing a bet for each.

Australia v Denmark

Kick-off: 3pm Wednesday

Denmark have been one of the major disappointments at the 2022 World Cup so far. Don’t forget that Kasper Hjulmand’s side made it to the semi-finals at the 2020 Euros; won nine of their 10 qualifying games for this tournament, and finished second in their Nations League group that also included France and Croatia. One point from two games in Qatar is just not good enough.

Many would have expected the Danes to beat Tunisia on matchday one, but they were forced to settle for a 0-0 draw after Andreas Cornelius missed a sitter (0.83 xG) late in the game. Their performance against France was a little better, but the result was worse. Denmark beat France twice in the Nations League, but saw a form reversal last week despite boasting 52% possession against the reigning champions. They just couldn’t keep Kylian Mbappe under wraps - but who can?

Australia, meanwhile, bounced back from a 4-1 defeat against France to beat Tunisia in a scrappy 1-0 encounter. It was their first victory at the World Cup since 2010, and a draw here should be good enough to see them qualify for the Round of 16. The Socceroos have already exceeded expectations and will be nervous ahead of this all-or-nothing clash.

Denmark possess more quality than Australia in every position and will adopt more attacking tactics as they need to win to qualify. Christian Eriksen is set to dominate the midfield - Australia’s Aaron Mooy will spend most of his time defending rather than running the show this time - and a victory to nil seems likely.

Prediction: Denmark to win to nil @ 2.4

Tunisia v France

Kick-off: 3pm Wednesday

No team has seen fewer goals in their first two World Cup 2022 matches than Tunisia. The North African nation played out of a 0-0 draw with Denmark in game one, before succumbing 1-0 to Australia in a surprise defeat. They currently sit bottom of Group D, but still have a chance of qualifying despite failing to score so far.

That hasn’t come from a lack of trying, but Tunisia clearly lack quality and a cutting edge upfront and should start Wahbi Khazri, who made 38 appearances for Sunderland between 2016 and 2018, in a forward role after he was dropped to the bench for their last match.

Olivier Giroud: already has two goals at World Cup 2022

France certainly don’t lack quality, especially up front where PSG striker Kylian Mbappe has been causing havoc to opposing defenders. The 23-year-old has already netted three times at this tournament, which includes an 86th-minute winner against the Danes on Saturday.

With six points and a +4 goal difference, France have already qualified for the knockout stages and look virtually assured in the top spot. Expect them to take the foot off the pedal a touch and play out a tight encounter. Given Tunisia’s failings in the final third, the probability of under 2.5 goals looks higher than the prices suggest.

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.81

Poland v Argentina

Kick-off: 7pm Wednesday

All four nations can still qualify from Group C, so both 7pm kick-offs should provide thrilling and intense match-ups. Poland currently top the group courtesy of a 0-0 draw against Mexico and a 2-0 victory over Saudi Arabia, in which star striker Robert Lewandowski scored his first World Cup goal.

The Poles are built from defence up - their structure and organisation is notable - but their star talent is at the other end of the pitch. Creating chances has proved to be their downfall in previous competitions, and central midfielders Krystian Bielik and Grzegorz Krychowiak might struggle to get a handle on this game. Nevertheless, a draw will see them through to the next round.

Robert Lewandowski: scored his first World Cup goal against Saudi Arabia

Many pundits believed that Argentina were the most likely winners of this World Cup, but they didn’t make a great start to the tournament by losing 2-1 to Saudi Arabia. Lionel Scaloni’s side bounced back with a crucial 2-0 victory against Mexico, although that game looked to be petering out before Lionel Messi’s clutch second-half strike.

Argentina had just five shots and relied on a couple of outside-the-box screamers to secure three points. Their composure and decision-making in the final third has been pretty poor, especially from Angel Di Maria, and, although they are likely to beat Poland, under 2.5 goals seems the best play.

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.74

Saudi Arabia v Mexico

Kick-off: 7pm Wednesday

Unlike the two games mentioned above, this match could be free-scoring. There have been an average of 2.5 strikes in Saudi Arabia's first two games, while Mexico need to come out all guns blazing to take the win and boost their goal difference to have a chance of qualifying for the Round of 16. 

We will be talking about Saudi Arabia’s shock victory over Argentina for years to come - the players earned themselves a Rolls Royce in the process! - but their performance declined against Poland and, given their hard-working and pressing style, fatigue may be beginning to set in.

If they can’t grab a goal early against Mexico, expect the Saudis to tire and allow Mexico’s pacey forwards to take advantage. Mexico dominated the ball against Poland without creating any clearcut chances, but their drive and determination to continue their Qatar dream will see more aggression in offensive areas. 

Napoli’s Hirving Lozano, who has 16 goals for his country, is yet to get off the mark in this World Cup and is due one. I was tempted to back him in the anytime goalscorer market, but I’ll instead stick to a straight-forward Mexico win.

Prediction: Mexico to win @ 1.66

Wednesday World Cup 2022 Tips

Australia v Denmark: Denmark to win to nil @ 2.4
Tunisia v France: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.81
Poland v Argentina: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.74
Saudi Arabia v Mexico: Mexico to win @ 1.66