Spain v Italy Tips: European heavyweights lock horns in Thursday’s Nations League semi-final
By Joe Crann
Spain v Italy Odds13 June 2023
A spot in the Nations League final is up for grabs on Thursday as European heavyweights Spain and Italy go into battle in the Enschede.
It’s only the third edition of the tournament, which began in 2018, but it’s remarkably the second time that these two will be facing off for a place in the showpiece event against Croatia, who beat the Netherlands 4-2 after extra time on Wednesday.
La Furia Roja and Gli Azzurri have 10 World Cup and European Championship titles between them, but neither has managed to add UEFA’s latest trophy to their cabinet as of yet – be assured, they will try to change that this year.
It’s not been a great year
The two nations have both blown hot and cold over the past 12 months. Spain lost to Switzerland and Scotland in tournament qualifiers on top of their shock defeats against Japan and Morocco at the World Cup, while the Italians have lost two of their last three - to Austria and England - and were battered 5-2 by Germany just a few months after they missed out on the World Cup completely.
Since November last year the Spanish have only managed to beat Jordan, Costa Rica and Norway, with Roberto Mancini’s men securing victories over Albania and Malta in the same timeframe.
With no home team advantage, this is expected to be a close game. However Luis de la Fuente’s Spain go into it as slight favourites to win in normal time at 2.38 compared to the Italians 3.55.
Head-to-head record
This fixture will be the 40th occasion that Spain and Italy have met in international competition, and they have an exceptionally close record over the years since their first encounter back in the 1920 Olympics. The Spaniards edge it, but only just with 12 wins compared to Italy’s 11. The most common result has been a draw, which has occurred 16 times.
It’s also been the best part of a decade since Italy managed to get one over on their opponents in the Mediterranean derby, last winning at Euro 2016 thanks to goals from Giorgio Chiellini and Graziano Pellè.
Of the 40 games, a total of 25 have either been drawn or won by a single goal. Add in the poor recent form of both nations - and the fact that this game comes at the end of a long season - and it’s easy to come to the conclusion this will be tight.
The Morata narrative
Alvaro Morata is the top-scoring active player for La Roja right now, and he will be going up against a group of defenders that he knows incredibly well in this contest after spending so many years of his career in Italy.
He scored plenty of goals there - in 185 games for Juventus he’s racked up a combined 98 goals and assists. His wife is Italian, he was married there, and - according to journalist Graham Hunter - his twins, Alessandro and Leonardo, basically support Italy.
There will be no sentiment at De Grolsch Veste, though, and he’s probably the safest bet in a difficult anytime goalscorer market at 3.05.