Focus Fixture: Will Kylian Mbappé lead France to yet another final?

Spain face France in the first of the Euro 2024 semi-finals, with the winner facing either England or Netherlands in the final. The two sides are evenly matched price-wise, so a tight and cagey affair is expected.

The Form

Spain have arguably been the most impressive side in the tournament up to this point.. Luis De La Fuente has re-invigorated Spain, with the additions of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams adding much-needed speed and flair to the side. 

Despite landing in a tough group, La Roja still emerged with a 100% record, shutting out Croatia, Italy and Albania. The knockouts saw them face perennial underdogs Georgia, going behind to a shock Robin Le Normand own goal. 

Spain showed their resilience and ability, eventually running out comfortable winners, before defeating Germany in the quarter-finals thanks to a goal from Mikel Merino in the last minute of extra time. 

France have looked lacklustre so far and have scraped through to the semi-final. Like Tuesday’s opponents, they faced a tough group, being pitted against Austria, Netherlands and Poland. 

Didier Deschamps’ side finished second in the group on five points, scoring just twice – one from a Maximilian Wôber own goal and the other from a Kylian Mbappé penalty. 

These below-par performances continued into the knockouts as they faced Belgium. France looked set for another 0-0 before Jan Vertonghen turned in an off-target Randal Kolo Muani strike in the 85th minute to break Red Devils hearts. This saw France face Portugal in the quarter-finals, winning on penalties in a turgid affair. 

The Runners and Riders

Pedri suffered a knee injury early on against Germany, so is ruled out for the foreseeable future. Robin Le Normand and Daniel Carvajal are also missing through suspensions. 

38-year-old Jesus Navas is set to fill in at right back, so will face a tough task against the electric Kylian Mbappe. Experienced centre-back Nacho Fernandez will replace Le Normand, while Dani Olmo is a like-for-like replacement for Pedri. The Leipzig midfielder shone against Germany. 

France have a full squad to pick from, and it is believed that Deschamps will pick the same team that scraped past Portugal. 

Star man Kylian Mbappe is struggling with a nose injury suffered against Austria but is the only French player to score so far, so they will be banking on him being fit. 

Selection

In the knockout rounds so far, we have seen plenty of tight games, with 3/4 ending as draws and Turkey vs Netherlands needing a late goal to separate the sides. As the tournament reaches the latter stages, games get more and more cagey as players are scared to make mistakes. 

Since Euro 96, 57% of the semi-final games have seen a draw, so historically, backing the draw in the semi-finals will pay dividends. 

While Spain won all three group games, they have not been as convincing in the knockouts, conceding early to Georgia and needing extra time to beat Germany. 

Still, they will ultimately fancy their chances against a France side that has looked devoid of any attacking impetus or threat. Deschamps seems determined to counter-attack, so we should be in for an intriguing battle.

It seems this match will be played more like a chess match at a slow, tactically astute pace. France’s games against three of the ‘bigger nations’ have seen just one goal and a similar pattern is expected to follow on Tuesday.  

Recommended Bet: The game to be decided on penalties @ 4.50

Bet Builder Tip

Despite only starting once this tournament, Dani Olmo has impressed many and will be rewarded with a start on Tuesday due to the unfortunate long-term injury suffered by Pedri.

The 26-year-old was given a start in a heavily-rotated Spain side in the final group stage game against Albania. Olmo hit four shots, while laying on an assist for Ferran Torres. The RB Leipzig midfielder also showcased his attacking threat, having seven touches inside the opposition penalty area. 

Despite only playing 38 minutes in the 4-1 drubbing of Georgia, Olmo managed six shots, three shots on target and a goal in a bright cameo. He also created four chances for his teammates. 

When Pedri limped off in the eighth minute against Germany, Olmo was afforded an opportunity to make a serious impact for his nation. He snatched this chance with both hands as he opened the scoring after 51 minutes. 

Again, Olmo was a constant threat, having two shots on target while also creating three chances for his teammates. With the dynamic duo of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams on the wing for Spain, Olmo should be afforded plenty of chances in the final third. 

All in all this Euros, he is averaging 1.70 shots on target and 0.68 assists on target. With a well-earned start, Dani Olmo could be the key to breaking down a resilient France defence. 

Recommended Bet: Back Dani Olmo assist and over 0.5 shots on target @ 9.0

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