Real Madrid v Man City Tips: Greg Lea believes current champions are overpriced

The first Champions League semi-final gets underway on Tuesday as Real Madrid host Manchester City in the first leg at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu. Mouth-watering probably doesn’t do it justice!

Man City are still chasing what would be a famous treble with just over a month of the season remaining. A feat last achieved in England by their rivals Manchester United in 1999, Pep Guardiola’s side are favourites to win the Premier League title, the FA Cup and the Champions League, but it is the latter trophy that will be the toughest to obtain. 

That is chiefly because of their opponents in this semi-final as whoever advances from this tie will most likely beat AC Milan or Inter in the Istanbul showpiece next month. Getting past Real Madrid will not be easy - history tells us that. 

With 14 titles to their name, it is fair to label the Champions League as Madrid’s tournament. Their number of successes is twice as much as AC Milan, who are second in the history books with seven wins. The trophy has ended up in Madrid’s cabinet in five of the last eight seasons, and manager Carlo Ancelotti is a four-time European champion - the most successful coach in the history of this competition.

Carlo Ancelloti: manager of Real Madrid who has had unmatched success in this competition

Had the European Super League come to fruition, I believe City would have finished above Madrid this campaign. My theory is that in a 38-game, round-robin format, Guardiola’s side would conquer all comers. 

In the Champions League, however, City have continually fallen short in recent years. Take last season, for example. Heading into the 90th minute in the second leg of their semi-final against Madrid, City were 5-3 up on aggregate. They then contrived to concede twice in the closing stages, before Karim Benzema notched the winner in extra time.

On the European stage, the Blancos are unflappable. That partly comes from the influence of their manager - the permanently calm Ancelotti - but Madrid also draw confidence from their record in this competition.

This is a team which responds remarkably well to adversity in the Champions League. On their way to glory in 2021/22, Madrid mounted dramatic comebacks against Paris-Saint Germain and City. In another knockout tie they wrestled back momentum from Chelsea when it looked like they had lost control. 

In the round of 16 this year, Madrid went 2-0 down to Liverpool inside 14 minutes. No sweat. They soon silenced the Anfield crowd and stormed back to win 5-2.

This has not been a vintage campaign for the Spanish giants - they are currently third in LaLiga behind Barcelona and Atletico Madrid having lost four of their last eight matches. Madrid won the Copa del Rey at the weekend, but that is hardly cause for wild celebration at the Bernabeu. 

Meanwhile, City have won 10 games in a row in the Premier League. They breezed past RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich in the previous knockout rounds, and will start to believe that the treble is there for the taking.

City may well advance to the Champions League final, but this first leg will be a major test. Given their record in this competition and the attractive odds available, I will be backing Madrid to triumph on Tuesday. 

Real Madrid v Manchester City Tips

Real Madrid to win @ 3.35