Premier League: why it's hard to look past Man City for another title next season

After the fixtures were released for the new Premier League season, Robin Bairner assesses the best outright bets, including the title, top four, and relegation markets.

Once more unto the breach

If the Premier League title race for 2021-22 is anything to go by, the fight for the trophy in 22-23 should be a thriller. 

Liverpool and Manchester City went toe-to-toe last season for the crown, with Pep Guardiola’s side emerging victorious only in the last quarter of an hour or so of the campaign. Similar fireworks are expected this time around, with this familiar pair expected to be leading the way again. 

The forthcoming season, though, promises to be a unique one. A prolonged break for the World Cup in November and December has thrown in a curveball to managers, with play stopping for several weeks before resuming again on Boxing Day. It will provide a novel challenge in a campaign like no other. 

On Thursday, the hype stepped up another notch with the release of the fixture list for the season.

Pep and Klopp to do battle again

Manchester City are understandably favourites to retain their crown, with Guardiola a 1.67 shot to lead his team to more glory. They will notably be bolstered by the arrival of Erling Haaland to the forefront of their attack, with the Norway star expected to give them punch at centre forward that they have previously lacked. 

Liverpool are the other team given a realistic shot of lifting the trophy, with Jurgen Klopp’s men second favourites at 4. The Reds have already acted to strengthen themselves with the signing of Darwin Nunez from Benfica. He vastly outperformed his xG in Portugal last season and there has only been one player in the history of the statistic that has constantly done that throughout his career: Lionel Messi. Just how prolific he can be in the Premier League is doubtful. 

If their star arrival does not look as promising as City’s, where the Reds might benefit is from having fewer stars who are likely to go deep in the World Cup. Should it come down to a scramble whereby these teams are juggling players in April and May because of European and cup commitments, this could give the Reds an edge. 

Indeed, the fixture schedules play out similarly for both sides. The season starts clemently and does not end with too many issues – although an April fixture between the sides may be vital. Perhaps the greatest difficulty comes for City, when they travel to Chelsea shortly after the World Cup break on January 2 – the third game in a three-game week. 

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp has signed Darwin Nunez, but faces losing Sadio Mane

Spurs third favourites

Beyond the top two, there is more uncertainty. Tottenham are priced at 15.5 largely off the back of manager Antonio Conte staying at the club. It appears he will be backed in the transfer market but he has historically struggled to juggle European and domestic football, which could be testing with the Champions League campaign to consider.

There is a sense that Spurs will be hit or miss. Although they are third favourites for the title, they are actually behind Chelsea in the betting to finish in the top four, priced at 1.87.

The Blues, of course, are in a period of transition with new owners. Their defence has been ripped to pieces due to Antonio Rudiger and Andreas Christensen both leaving on a free transfer – and Cesar Azpilicueta and Marcos Alonso may join them in departing. It is understandable, then, that traders have them priced at 20 for the title, though Thomas Tuchel’s solid management is backed to get them into the top four at 1.74. 

The fixture list has not been kind to the Stamford Bridge side, who have a London derby with Tottenham early in the season, and Man City at the end of a difficult festive sequence. Equally, they have a nightmare run in, in which they face Manchester United, Arsenal and City all away.

United to finish strong

Man United are a subject that must be broached, too. After years of mismanagement, the Old Trafford side seem to be showing signs of plotting out a sound long-term plan with the appointment of Erik ten Hag as manager.

Fireworks cannot be expected instantly – especially after a sluggish start to the summer transfer market – and that is reflected in odds of 44 on them to win the title and 2.4 to finish in the top four. United have a very comfortable end to the season, so look for them to finish strongly. If they can get into position, they will be dangerous.

Rounding out the ‘Big 6’ are Arsenal. Mikel Arteta’s side should have made the Champions League this season but blew it in the closing stages of the campaign. Surgery is needed in several areas of the squad to elevate them to that standard, most notably in attack. Get it right, and 3.1 could be attractive odds for a top four finish. 

The Gunners have a great chance to build some early momentum. This is the opposite to last season, when they faced Man City and Chelsea early on. Three of their first five fixtures are winnable home games, while they also play two promoted sides before August is out.

Under Eddie Howe, Newcastle moved clear of danger to claim the third-best record in the second half of the season

Talk of the Toon

Newcastle, meanwhile, provide an X-factor coming into this season. The St James’ Park side have money to burn and were one of the best-performing sides of the second half of last term once they got going under Eddie Howe. 

Traders still have their doubts over the longevity of this form but priced at 9 to finish in the top four, there looks to be attractive value in the bet given the momentum that Howe has at the club and the potential for new arrivals. With the other big clubs in transition, it is a year they could strike. 

How the dogfight’s shaping up

What about the other end of the table? Inevitably, it’s the three promoted clubs that head up the betting for the relegation dogfight, with Bournemouth favourites at 1.7 to go straight back down. With the hardest start of any club in the league, the Cherries will be hard pressed to maintain the momentum gained from promotion. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest are backed by an owner aspiring for great things but are still at 1.82 while yoyo club Fulham are at 2.26.

Much will depend on the summer transfer market to see how these clubs fare, but there is no shortage of ambition, in particular from Forest. 

Indeed, more established Premier League teams could be in trouble. Everton showed last season how one poor summer can land a team in trouble and at 5.8, Frank Lampard’s side again look a tempting bet. An imminent takeover could quickly transform their fortunes. 

Leeds at 3.3 look to be on shaky ground and similarly Southampton at 4.1 are vulnerable. Brentford are priced at 3.8 and should not be discounted, but they are a shrewd club and are often underestimated, as these odds reflect.

As an outside bet, Brighton at 7.4 could be in danger if they lose manager Graham Potter, especially as Marc Cucurella and Yves Bissouma are set to depart the club this summer.

Recommended bets 

Manchester City @ 1.67

Bournemouth relegated @ 1.7

Everton relegated @ 5.8

Newcastle top four @ 9