Premier League Top Goalscorer: Jack Goddard selects youth over experience

The Premier League Golden Boot race isn’t what it used to be. Gone are the days of 30-a-season strikers - 23 seems to be the magic number now. 

Last season, wingers Heung-Min Son and Mohamed Salah shared the award after hitting the back of the net five times more than the highest-ranked striker - 37-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored on 18 occasions.

But things are about to change. Manchester City and Liverpool have added a wonderkid - Erling Haaland and Darwin Nunez respectively - who will add even more attacking threat to two sides who scored a whopping 193 goals between them last season.

Add those two to Premier League stalwarts Harry Kane, Gabriel Jesus and Jamie Vardy and suddenly the Golden Boot race is too close to call. Here’s who I think might come out on top.

The old reliables

Mo Salah is difficult to ignore, especially after three Golden Boot wins in five years. He is also the most recent Premier League top scorer to post more than 30 goals in a year, notching 32 in his first season for Liverpool. However, Salah struggled toward the end of the last campaign, scoring just once in his final five appearances for the Reds.

Heung-Min Son shared the award with Salah last year, much to many people’s surprise. The South Korean had never scored more than 17 goals in a season before then, suggesting his return of 23 may be an anomaly. With Richarlison and a potentially back-in-form Harry Kane to share the goals with this year, back-to-back Golden Boots may be a tough task.

Speaking of Harry Kane, his 17 goals last year were his joint-lowest return since 2013/14, when he scored just three times in ten appearances. However, 12 goals in his final 16 games last season suggests the England captain could be back in form. Don’t write off the three-time winner, especially at 6.8 to finish top scorer.

New signings

Until his horror miss in last weekend’s Community Shield final, you’d be forgiven for believing that Erling Haaland was more machine than man. 

Don’t let his underwhelming performance put you off, though. Since leaving Molde three-and-a-half years ago, he has averaged a goal every 76 minutes for RB Salzburg and Dortmund combined. It turns out he is a goal machine, and at 22 he’s only getting better. He’s the current favourite for the Golden Boot at 3.85.

Only Liverpool’s new signing Darwin Nunez can match those kinds of stats. He scored once every 78 minutes for Benfica in Portugal’s Liga Bwin last year, and also managed to net twice against his new club in the Champions League Quarter-Finals. The Uruguayan, like Haaland, is just 22 years old - scary stuff.

Gabriel Jesus might not quite be in the same ball park as Haaland and Nunez but he is enjoying an historically good pre-season with his new side Arsenal, netting seven times in five games. The Brazilian looks like he is exactly the striker the Gunners have been looking for and he’ll get plenty of game time to prove it. If he continues scoring at his current rate when the real stuff starts he’s in line for 90 goals this season…

Dark horses

Raheem Sterling has been brought in to Chelsea for one reason only - to score goals. He’s extremely good at it, too, with his most prolific season so far coming in 2019/20 when he scored 31 in all competitions. With Romelu Lukaku out the door and no prolific striker to replace him, Sterling could find himself with plenty of opportunities this year.

Calling Cristiano Ronaldo a dark horse feels like an incredibly foolish move, but the speculation around his Manchester United future makes him impossible to place. If he remains a Premier League player the sky is limitless for one of the best footballers the world has ever seen - even as he approaches 40 years of age.

Long shots

Believe it or not, Jamie Vardy ended up with 15 goals last season from just 25 appearances, meaning he scored at the same rate as Mo Salah (one every 120 minutes) and a higher rate than Son (one every 131 minutes). If the 35-year-old can stay fit and Leicester keep hold of James Maddison then Vardy may be in contention once again. Those are two big ifs, so he’s a long shot for now.

This last one is a bit wild, but Aleksandar Mitrovic scored 43 goals in the second tier last season. If you didn’t know, that smashed the Championship record by a staggering 12 goals. 37 of them weren’t penalties, either, which further asserts his dominance over Ivan Toney’s previous record (31 goals, 9 penalties). The Serbian is set to have a big year despite Fulham’s underdog status.

Recommended bets

Erling Haaland to be the Premier League top goalscorer @ 3.85
Darwin Nunez to be the Premier League top goalscorer @ 14