Premier League Outright: How likely is it that Manchester City still win the title?

The festive season is upon us and we are two games away from the halfway point in this Premier League season. 

We are about to enter the busy Christmas period with Premier League football being played on all but Christmas day from December 20th through to January 2nd. 

Ahead of all that action we thought it was time to take a look at the Premier League outright markets again.

The Title Race

Since the last of these articles was published, just over a month ago, the pack at the top has closed up significantly. Man City were top, albeit by goal difference, back then - the reigning champions now find themselves in fourth. They are five points off leaders Arsenal but given their pedigree they still occupy the favourite position at 2.50. It is still a significant drift in price given they were as short as 1.42 in September. Saturday’s draw with Crystal Palace at the Etihad impacted their price more than any other in recent weeks with a move from odds on to odds against.

Arsenal, the current leaders, are second favourites at 3.65. The Gunners’ 2-0 win over Brighton on Sunday was enough to put them back on top of the table. Their price took a dive down to 5.4 after a 1-0 loss to Aston Villa the week before. The Villa result aside, Arsenal have been consistently grinding out results and with City faltering their price has steadily shortened in the last month from 6.8 when the previous outright piece was written.

Liverpool are second in the table and are currently priced at 4.1. A disappointing performance against Manchester United on Sunday saw their price ease from 3.7. The Reds host Arsenal at Anfield on Saturday and it will be interesting to see how the result of that game will affect the odds heading into the Boxing Day matches. 

Aston Villa currently find themselves third in the table thanks to an exceptional start to the season. No team has won more games than their 12, and back to back wins over Man City and Arsenal in the space of four days has given the Villans a real boost of confidence. They are still very unlikely to seriously challenge for the title, with the depth of their squad being an issue but their price has come in dramatically. Prior to the City clash, Villa could have been backed at 100.0. They are now as short as 15.5.

The Golden Boot

This particular race is still largely dominated by one horse. Despite missing the last two matches with injury, Erling Haaland is still the leading scorer in the league with 14 and the heavy favourite in the market at 1.24. The Norwegian striker has played 50 games in the Premier League, scoring a remarkable 50 goals. The return of City’s assist master Kevin De Bruyne is getting closer, something which will please Haaland a great deal.

Mohammed Salah is having yet another exceptional season. He has the most goal involvement (goals + assists) in the league this season with 18. Despite only being three goals off Haaland his chances of winning the golden boot are damaged by the fact he will be missing up to a month of Premier League action while he competes in the African Cup of Nations during January and February. Such is his prolific nature that he is still second favourite at 6.0.

Ollie Watkins is the third favourite for the golden boot. After a shaky start, the Aston Villa striker has been in great form in the last few weeks. He has 9 goals so far, to go with his six assists. Like almost everyone at Aston Villa, he has been massively boosted by the arrival of Unai Emery and his performances in the last year have earnt him regular call-ups for England duty. He can currently be found at 19.0.

The Fight to Stay Up

It has been a real struggle for the three promoted sides this season as the gap between the Premier League and the EFL Championship only seems to get wider. Sheffield United, Luton, and Burnley all find themselves in the bottom three with odds of staying up at 1.09, 1.25 and 1.34 respectively. 

Nottingham Forest are next at 3.8 but despite their poor run of form are still five points clear of the drop zone. They have had a lot of injury setbacks throughout the season, but I think they have a strong enough squad to stay in the league. 

Despite receiving a ten-point deduction Sean Dyche’s Everton side are already seven points off the drop having won their last four in a row. They are at 13.5 to go down and look more likely to make a challenge for a European place right now.