Premier League Outright Betting Tips: Who's drifting and who is shortening as the season approaches?

Just as pre-season began, we assessed the candidates to win the Premier League, to finish in the top four and to be relegated. With the season just around the corner, we revisit those picks to assess how the prices have changed and tried to work out what the market might be telling us.

Title Winner

Manchester City – 2.64

Since we outlined Manchester City as our title winner last month, they have drifted from 2.40 to 2.62 in the betting. The club have sold Julian Alvarez to Atletico Madrid for £81m without making any further additions ahead of the season. Their hearing for 115 financial breaches is also scheduled to begin in September but City remain the title favourites.

Pep Guardiola’s team triumphed over Manchester United in the Community Shield last weekend. They had to field a number of second-string players but still had enough to get the job done on penalties. That quality is why City are still the best pick for the title. They are almost unplayable at the business end of the season. They are unbeaten in their last 23 league matches, a run that saw them usurp Arsenal at the top of the league and secure a fourth consecutive league crown. 

Top Four

Arsenal – 1.07

Arsenal’s odds have shortened in terms of the title since our last preview.  They look set to be Manchester City’s main rivals for the Premier League crown once again and it’s inconceivable that they will finish outside of the top four. They remain active in the transfer market and there could be further additions after they got a deal for Riccardo Calafiori over the line. 

They led the way until they were beaten by Aston Villa at the Emirates back in April. Manchester City’s 100% record from that point on meant the door remained closed for Arsenal but the Gunners undoubtedly made huge progress last season. 

There was very little to separate them and City last season. Mikel Arteta’s team had the best defensive record in the league, conceding an average of 0.76 goals per game. It is often said that title-winning teams are built on solid defences and Arsenal’s backline is certainly that. 

Liverpool – 1.59

There has been almost no change in Liverpool’s price in the last month. They have marginally drifted from 1.57 to finish in the top four but that has very little to do with what’s happened on the pitch. The Reds enjoyed a productive pre-season under Arne Slot, winning four of their five matches and looking threatening in attack.

Off the field, Liverpool are still awaiting their first signing for the first team since Jurgen Klopp departed. Martin Zubimendi turned down the chance to join the Reds in favour of remaining in the Basque country. Arne Slot would no doubt love to add to his squad before the window slams shut but the team have enough quality to finish in the top four. 

Liverpool having a rampant attack was a key factor in the earlier preview and that fact remains unchanged. They had the highest xG in the Premier League last season with 94.79.

Aston Villa – 4.80

Aston Villa have drifted significantly for those who backed them to finish in the top four. They were priced at 3.95 just 30 days ago. Nevertheless, they still look like a team that are capable of getting the better of Chelsea, Manchester United and Newcastle, all of whom have shortened, in the race for the Champions League.

Unai Emery has been given plenty of reinforcements in the summer. The club have raised funds with some lucrative sales but every bit of that has been reinvested in the squad. 

Relegation 

Leicester – 1.48

As was the case when the initial preview was written, Leicester are still the favourites to go down. This is largely due to the expectation that they will face sanctions from the Premier League for breaking profit and sustainability rules. It’s been quiet in terms of when they will face any potential points deduction but any penalty could be catastrophic. 

Leicester have lost their last three matches in pre-season and they remain in our predicted bottom three. Steve Cooper was dismissed by Nottingham Forest last season and it’ll be tough for him to keep Leicester in the top flight.

Ipswich – 1.93

The Tractor Boys are another of our relegation picks that have shortened in price to go down since we last reviewed this market. Kieran McKenna has already proven his worth as a manager, masterminding back-to-back promotions and playing some excellent football in the process. However, keeping Ipswich in the Premier League would eclipse those achievements.

Ipswich had the fourth-highest xG in the second tier last season and they got a lot of their transfer business done early this summer. The new signings will have had a chance to settle in but they face Liverpool on the opening weekend. It could be a rude awakening for the Ipswich faithful who are hoping to see their team stay up. 

Nottingham Forest – 3.65

Last season was just the second time in Premier League history that the three newly-promoted teams went down. We are backing Nottingham Forest to be the team that prevents the same thing from happening in this campaign. 

The decision to appoint Nuno Espirito Santo may have kept Forest up, but there wasn’t a significant upturn in results. They managed to win just three of their 11 home league matches under the new boss. That record at the City Ground will have to drastically improve if they are to avoid the drop this time.