Premier League: Who is going to be crowned champions and who is going down

We are now just over a month away from the end of the Premier League season and the finish line is very much in sight. 

After a dramatic Sunday which saw both Liverpool and Arsenal lose at home, the advantage in the title race appears to have been handed to Manchester City. 

There is also a hell of a scrap going on at the bottom of the Premier League table with everyone from Luton Town in 18th to Crystal Palace in 14th in contention for the drop.

The race for a top four finish between Aston Villa and Tottenham is exceptionally close as well.

The Title Race

For the first time in a long time, we have been treated to a three-horse race for the Premier League title with Liverpool joining Arsenal and Manchester City in the hunt. 

After Sunday’s pair of losses for Liverpool and Arsenal, Man City’s odds have been slashed from 2.2 to 1.44. It is hard to argue with the market given that the last three Premier League titles have ended up in the blue side of Manchester. 

While Man City have the hardest run-in in terms of averaging league position, 10.5 for City compared to 10.1 for Arsenal and 9.5 for Liverpool. They only face one team currently in the top seven in the league whereas both Liverpool and Arsenal have two. It is worth noting that all three teams play fifth-placed Tottenham in the run-in.

Despite being in contention for another treble, City have not been as convincing as they have in previous seasons. The fact they have only kept seven clean sheets all season is testament to the fact they have struggled to control games as they would like. 

I don’t think there is much value in backing Manchester City at the moment, so I would be inclined to take a look at Arsenal. Before the Villa loss, they had only dropped points against Man City in 2024, it will be interesting to see how they respond after this result. They travel to Munich to face Bayern in a Champions League quarter-final on Wednesday, the boost they could receive from winning that could easily push them on towards the title. 

On the other hand, I think Liverpool are a spent force this season. In their losses against Atalanta in the Europa League and Crystal Palace in the league they looked shattered, it is hard to see Jurgen Klopp being able to turn the momentum. They have been wasteful up front all season and it has finally caught up with them. Their shot conversion rate of 11% would be the lowest of any team to win the Premier League. 

Back Arsenal to win the league @ 5.5

The Relegation Battle 

This season, the battle to stay in the Premier League has been significantly complicated by Everton and Nottingham Forest receiving points deductions for breaching the league’s profitability and sustainability rules.

Barring a miracle, Burnley and Sheffield United will be making a return to life in the championship. They sit on 20 and 16 points respectively and have won a combined seven games from a possible 65. 

Luton Town, who were the pre-season favourites for the drop have battled manfully and sit just one point behind Nottingham Forest on 25. The market thinks they are most likely to go down at 1.67. Given Forest and Everton’s points deductions it appears that Luton are the third worst side in the division but could they escape?

In their five remaining games, Luton only play one team above tenth - eighth-placed West Ham - and their clash with Everton on May 3rd appears to be crucial for both sides. Luton won the return fixture at Goodison Park 2-1 back in September. 

Everton on the other hand, do face Stanley-Park rivals Liverpool and title-challengers Arsenal in their run in. Their other games are winnable though, they play Nottingham Forest, Brentford and Sheffield United all at home in their remaining six games. All three are in the relegation picture and come under the beloved term of ‘six-pointers’. However, they aren’t going into these games on a strong run of form, despite beating Burnley recently, they lost 6-0 to Chelsea this week. They also don’t know how many points they need to end the season on, they received a second points deduction from the Premier League last week but have already appealed it.

According to the market, Nottingham Forest are twice as likely to be relegated as Everton. They are priced at 3.2 compared to Everton’s 6.6. Three of Forest’s five remaining matches are on the road where they have only managed two wins all season. Their home matches are against Man City and Chelsea so are unlikely to go into either as favourites. Due to this, I think they could be the team to go down and at 3.2 there is value there. 

Back Nottingham Forest to get relegated @ 3.2

A Top Four Finish

Aston Villa and Tottenham have been locked in a battle to finish in the top four for most of the season. Both teams have had great campaigns and have seen great improvements from last season. 

For the last month, it has looked likely that the top five teams in England will receive a place in the Champions League thanks to the new UEFA coefficient. However, a series of poor results from English teams in recent European fixtures has seen the chances of that drop significantly to just over 50%.

The two sides met on March 10 and a 4-0 win for Tottenham saw Villa’s price dive from 1.99 to 2.6. However, last weekend’s loss for Tottenham and win for Villa have seen them swap again with Villa going from 3.2 to 1.51 and Spurs falling from 1.44 to 2.98. 

In terms of their respective run-ins Villa appear to have the easier schedule. However, they do face Chelsea and Liverpool at home in the coming weeks, both sides have beaten them this season. They are also still in the European Conference League and Unai Emery seems keen to bring a trophy to Villa Park. If they get through their quarter-final second leg against Lille on Thursday you can add another two games onto their schedule. Villa are also missing four important players through injury, none of which will return before the end of the season so another injury to a key player could cause them real problems.

Tottenham meanwhile are only three points behind Villa and have a game in hand. Due to fixture congestion with other clubs they have just started a 15-day break between matches which will see them next play in the North London Derby on April 28. They then have to face Chelsea and Liverpool in quick succession before hosting Man City nine days later. Where Tottenham have the advantage over Villa is that their other two matches are against Burnley and Sheffield United who they will be odds on favourites to beat. They also don’t have any European football to contend with which could be a big bonus.

I think Tottenham’s clean bill of health and lack of European football makes them decent value at 2.98.

Back Tottenham to finish in the top four @ 2.98