Premier League: Manchester derby set to take centre stage on Sunday

No slip ups

Every Manchester derby is an important event, of course, but Sunday’s clash between Man City and Man Utd has more on the line than usual. 

City find themselves embroiled in a thrilling race for the Premier League title with Liverpool and cannot afford to slip up. United, meanwhile, are battling simply to finish in the top four.

Pep Guardiola’s side are 1.44 favourites to get the win in this game, while the Red Devils are on offer at 8.2 to spring a surprise success. A draw is priced at 4.7.

City aiming to see double

Given Manchester City’s dominance of English football since Pep Guardiola took charge of them in 2016, it is remarkable that they are chasing just a second league double over the rivals during his reign. 

When the sides met at Old Trafford in November, the league leaders won at a canter. Eric Bailly’s own goal set the tone for a first half of outrageous dominance, which was capped when Bernardo Silva struck after 45 minutes. The second period was little more than a procession. 

Playing at home, though, is not the luxury it might be perceived for the Etihad club. Two of their three league defeats have come in front of their home support, including a dramatic 3-2 loss against Tottenham last time out.

Paul Pogba might be a decent outside bet for anytime goalscorer in a fixture with a recent history of unexpected marksmen

United seeking comfort in history

Manchester United, meanwhile, remain a club at a low ebb. An exciting summer of transfer signings had them primed to challenge for the title but instead they find themselves fighting even to qualify for next season’s Champions League. 

Ralf Rangnick’s side have won only two of their last seven fixtures in all competitions, though they have not lost any of these games in 90 minutes.

They can be further heartened by history. This is the Premier League fixture that has most commonly been won by the away side, while United have also won their last three visits to the Etihad. They are chasing four successive wins for the first time since a run between 1993 and 2000. 

City’s quality to tell

Despite Man Utd’s impressive record at the Etihad, there remains a yawning gulf between the quality of football these sides are producing, which points to a home victory.

It would be a surprise, meanwhile, if this was a free-scoring match. United under Rangnick have typically been conservative, while this fixture has a history of producing tight scorelines. Indeed, none of the last six games between these sides have seen both get on the scoresheet, while there have been under three goals in each of these games. 

Manchester City and under 2.5 goals in the game is available at 4.2, which looks like outstanding value. 

The derby is also a fixture that has had a habit of producing unlikely scorers in recent seasons. Nemanja Matic, Scott McTominay, John Stones, Fernandinho and Luke Shaw have scored five of the last nine goals between these sides, while another was that Bailly own goal when they last met. It could be worth looking at some longer priced players as anytime scorers in this fixture, then, with Paul Pogba available to back at 6.6, Joao Concelo at 8.8, and Ruben Dias at 9.4.

Recommended bet

Man City / Under 2.5 goals @ 4.2