Premier League: Greg Lea has a cards tip for the north London derby

A place in next season's Champions League is potentially on the line when Spurs and Arsenal clash on Thursday night.

Tottenham must beat north London neighbours

A 1-1 draw at Anfield on Saturday was a good result for Tottenham in isolation, but they actually ended the weekend worse off in the race for the top four.

Arsenal’s 2-1 victory over Leeds United leaves Mikel Arteta’s men with a four-point advantage in the race for the final Champions League qualification spot. Our traders give them a 76.3% shot of finishing fourth, compared to 29% for Tottenham.

Spurs must win this game to stand a chance of usurping their rivals. Even that might not be enough. Arsenal only need to win two of their remaining three matches to secure a top-four finish, so triumphs over Newcastle United and Everton would get them over the line regardless of the outcome on Thursday.

Spurs have an excellent home record in the north London derby. Their last Premier League defeat in this fixture was back in March 2014; the one before that was seven years earlier. Antonio Conte’s side are attractively priced at 2.2 to emerge victorious in this week’s crunch clash.

Golden Boot-chasing Son can score again

This will be a test of Arsenal’s mentality and resolve. The Gunners have made fantastic progress this term and are ahead of schedule in their development under Arteta, but there is still room for improvement as far as their away record is concerned. Arsenal have lost seven of their 17 games on the road this season, and their goal difference at opposition grounds is zero.

Tottenham will come flying out of the traps on Thursday and Arsenal will have to withstand some heavy pressure. Their back line will have their hands full in dealing with Dejan Kulusevski, Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, with the South Korean in particular in tremendous form right now.

Son has scored nine goals in his last seven club appearances, and he is only two strikes behind Mohamed Salah in the battle for the Golden Boot. At 6.2 it is worth a punt on him scoring the first goal in this one.

Spurs manager Antonio Conte is preparing for his first north London derby as Tottenham boss

Expect a feisty affair with plenty at stake

There are more than just local bragging rights up for grabs on Thursday, so we can expect this to be a hard-fought, fiercely contested encounter. With that in mind, consider over 6.5 cards at 2.72.

Of the last seven Premier League meetings between these two clubs, three have produced at least seven cards – and two other games featured six. Both of these teams possess pace on the counter-attack, so tactical fouling in a bid to break up the opposition’s play is likely to be a feature.

Paul Tierney, the top-flight referee who has shown the second-most yellow cards this season, could be in for a busy evening.

Recommended bets

Tottenham @ 2.2

Son @ 6.2

Over 6.5 cards @ 2.72