Premier League Betting Tips: Back a defender to score this weekend?

Andy Schooler previews this weekend’s Premier League TV games with chunky-priced goalscorer and card bets among his picks.

Newcastle v Manchester City

Saturday, 12:30, TNT Sports

No Rodri, no title party? It has to be a worry for City fans – maybe even the squad itself.

He’s been the irreplaceable one for Pep Guardiola in the past couple of seasons, rarely rested while others were rotated.

With the Spaniard out for months, how will City fare? History suggests not so well – they’ve lost seven of the 21 Premier League games he’s missed since joining in 2019.

They’ve often found trouble at St James’ Park too, winning only four of their last eight here. Obviously to most teams that would be a pretty decent record but, to City, not so much. Two of those wins have come via late comebacks after they had trailed, including last season’s 3-2 success.

Newcastle may not be at the top of their form but they’ve taken 10 points from a possible 15 so far and would draw level with City on points were they to win this.

With Guardiola now facing questions about how exactly to shape his side without Rodri – Kevin de Bruyne was also missing last week – it’s worth taking them on here.

Back Newcastle/Draw in the double-chance market at 2.38.

Prediction: Newcastle/Draw double chance @ 2.38

Wolves v Liverpool

Saturday, 17:30, Sky Sports

They say strike while the iron is hot. Well, Luis Diaz is sizzling right now.

The Colombian has five Premier League goals already this season, scoring one every 72 minutes on average. Only Erling Haaland has more.

Here, Diaz goes up against the league’s joint-worst defence – Wolves have conceded 14 times across the opening five games.

Going back to the end of last season, the hosts have picked up only six points from their last 15 Premier League games and playing the second-placed Reds hardly looks an ideal fixture to get them out of that rut.

At 2.88, Diaz looks like a spot of value in the anytime goalscorer market.

Prediction: Luis Diaz anytime scorer @ 2.88

Ipswich v Aston Villa

Sunday, 14:00, Sky Sports

I like the chance of cards in this one.

Villa were third-best for yellow cards received in last season’s Premier League, with Ipswich fifth in the equivalent Championship list.

So far this season, Ipswich have seen at least two cards in every game, while Villa have landed that bet in three of five in the league.

Both teams over 1.5 cards pays 1.58, while over 4.5 total cards is at 1.84.

Those are a little short for me, so I’ll turn to the player-card market where Omari Hutchinson has potential at 4.9.

The former Chelsea man has been carded in three of his five Premier League appearances this season. He was also booked on the final day of last season.

Hutchinson has committed five fouls in his last two games and, in this one, he’ll likely be operating in the same area of the field as the often-fouled Amadou Onana and Youri Tielemans.

The referee is Stuart Attwell. The appointment could be better but he was above average for cards last season, showing 4.35 yellows per game. It’s also notable that this season there’s been a relative surge of cards – 5.16 per match which is virtually a whole card above last season’s figure.

Prediction: Omari Hutchinson to be carded @ 4.9

Manchester United v Tottenham

Sunday, 16:30, Sky Sports

For those seeking a big price, Matthijs de Ligt to score at any time in this game looks to have some legs.

He’s been a real threat from set-pieces in recent weeks, scoring at Southampton and going close at Crystal Palace last Saturday when the centre-back had no fewer than three shots on target.

On the other side of the ball, Spurs have been poor at defending set-plays for some time.

Last season, only Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa and the relegated sides conceded more from such situations, while Arsenal shone a light on their vulnerability in the recent North London Derby.

In short, De Ligt looks like a decent price at 9.6.

Prediction: Matthijs de Ligt anytime scorer @ 9.6

Bournemouth v Southampton

Monday, 20:00, Sky Sports

Southampton are short on goals – they’ve managed a league-low two so far – but I’m not sure some of their main goal threats should be the prices they are in this game.

Bournemouth are far from world beaters, winning just once so far and that was the bizarre 3-2 comeback victory at Everton, a game they should really have lost 3 or 4-0.

The player who stands out is the one who scored for Saints last week, namely Tyler Dibling.

The teenager has caught the eye in his appearances so far – he also went close to opening the scoring against Manchester United.

I just don’t see why someone playing in the Saints’ front three in this game should be 5.9 to score.

That looks the best bet but it may also be worth adding a small slice of the 16.0 offered in the first-scorer market. Dibling landed this last week against Ipswich and Bournemouth have conceded first in five of their six games this season.

Prediction: Tyler Dibling anytime scorer @ 5.9

Recommended Bets

Newcastle/Draw double chance v Man City @ 2.38
Luis Diaz anytime scorer in Wolves v Liverpool @ 2.88
Omari Hutchinson to be carded in Ipswich v Aston Villa @ 4.9
Matthijs de Ligt anytime scorer in Man Utd v Spurs @ 9.6
Tyler Dibling anytime scorer in Bournemouth v Southampton @ 5.9