Premier League Betting Tips: Callum Wilson to score and Man City to beat Brighton

Football’s back, finally, and to mark the return of the domestic action we have five tips for this weekend's Premier League action. 

Liverpool vs Everton 

Kick-off: 12:30 Saturday, TNT Sports 1 

The Premier League action commences at Anfield where the first Merseyside Derby of the season takes place. Given the start Liverpool have made to the campaign, it should come as no surprise to see the hosts are heavy favourites but that counts for little in a derby. 

Everton have picked up results in over 56% of their games against the Reds historically and goals have been of a premium recently with two or less goals scored in each of the last three meetings. 

Head-to-head data may lack real substance but in a derby it provides vital context. It is also important to note that Everton rank fourth for non-penalty xG in the top flight, ahead of Liverpool. 

Since Dominic Calvert-Lewin returned, Shaun Dyche’s side have turned a corner. I fancy the visitors to run the Reds close on Saturday. 

Prediction: Everton Asian Handicap (+1.5) @ 1.98

Brentford vs Burnley 

Kick-off: 15:00 Saturday

The table lies, it is true and that is certainly the case with Brentford who in no way should be in the bottom half. The Bees are currently languishing in 15th but according to the underlying data (Opta) could be as high as 8th. Thomas Frank’s side have simply underperformed their xG and are shipping more than their xGA suggests they should have. 

The visit of Vincent Kompany’s Burnley provides the hosts with a golden opportunity to end a run of eight games without a win, one I expect them to take. The issue with the Clarets is, they are not adapting to demands of the Premier League quickly enough, as a solitary win over Luton depicts.  

Prediction: Brentford to win at @ 1.88

Man City vs Brighton 

Kick-off: 15:00 Saturday

The consensus amongst the Etihad faithful is they respect Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton because the Italian supremo does not compromise on his ethos. This often leads to thrilling encounters between Brighton and the biggest and best sides in the division. De Zerbi’s first game was a trip to Anfield where honours were shared in a six goal thriller.  

This season, against Aston Villa, there were seven goals scored in total (6-1) and four against Liverpool (2-2), Man Utd (3-1) and Newcastle (3-1). In fact, only one of Brighton’s 11 games in all competitions have failed to see over 2.5 goals and both teams score. 

Given Man City’s quality, I expect them to edge a high scoring affair. 

Prediction: Man City to win and both teams to score @ 2.56

Newcastle vs Crystal Palace 

Kick-off: 15:00 Saturday

Crystal Palace head to St James’ Park with two of their most important players potentially absent. Eberechi Eze is ruled out, the Eagles creator in chief, and Michael Olise has a 25% chance of making his first league start of the season. 

Roy Hodgson’s side may be unbeaten in three Premier League games but they have only scored one goal over that period and came courtesy of centre back Joachim Andersen. 

Despite keeping three clean sheets in as many games, Palace have shipped an xGA of 2.9 and Aston Villa put three past them the game prior.  

With European action on the horizon, Callum Wilson should get the nod here and his price to score appeals. 

Prediction: Callum Wilson to score anytime @ 2.2

Tottenham vs Fulham 

Kick-off: 20:00 Monday, Sky Sports

Ange Postecoglou has been a breath of fresh air for Tottenham fans. Going from Anotonio Conte’s tedious football to the new supremo’s swashbuckling style must have been a shock to the system but one they are relishing in the white half of North London. 

Spurs went into the international break top of the pile, ahead of their local rivals by only goals scored. Averaging 2.25 per game, Monday’s hosts should pick up where they left off against Fulham. 

The Cottages have shipped the fourth most xGA (15.8) in the top flight, which makes them fortunate to concede as few as they have.  

Prediction: Tottenham to win and both teams to score @ 2.8

Recommended Bets

Back Everton Asian Handicap (+1.5) @ 1.98
Back Brentford to win at @ 1.88
Back Man City to win and both teams to score @ 2.56
Back Callum Wilson to score anytime @ 2.2
Back Tottenham to win and both teams to score @ 2.8