Premier League Betting Tips: Brighton and Aston Villa to come out on top

By James Cantrill

Latest Football Odds

15 September 2023

The Premier League returns for matchday five following the international break - here are five tips from five top flight matches over Saturday and Sunday. 

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday 

Don’t be disheartened by Aston Villa’s heavy defeats against Newcastle and Liverpool where they conceded eight goals and scored one. The fact Unai Emery’s side are flat track bullies is evident as they cruised to victory at Turf Moor (3-1) and against Everton (4-0). 

Since the Spanish supremo took the reins at Villa Park, they have played nine home games against sides who finished below them in the table winning seven. 

Crystal Palace have made a great start to the season but a trip to the Midlands represents a stern test. 

Prediction: Aston Villa to win at 1.96

Manchester United vs Brighton 

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Manchester United finished their last league game at the Emirates with a back four of Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Harry Maguire, Jonny Evans and Diogo Dalot. Unsurprisingly, the Red Devils capitulated in injury time conceding twice to lose the game 3-1. 

That performance in North London epitomised Erik ten Hag’s side's underwhelming start to the season. Man Utd have laboured to victories against Nottingham Forest and Wolves, two bottom half sides, and conceded five in their two games against fellow ‘big six’ clubs. 

Given the hosts defensive injury woes and shortcomings in midfield, they are best avoided here. There is some value in Brighton’s price, a side who have scored an average of two goals per game away from home under Roberto De Zerbi. 

Prediction: Brighton to win at 3.1

Fulham vs Luton 

Kick-off: 3pm Saturday

Despite a turbulent summer, Fulham have made a good start to the campaign. Impressive considering their talisman Aleksandar Mitrovic has moved on and their manager and best player almost followed him out of Craven Cottage. 

The Cottagers performance at the Etihad was much better than the 5-1 scoreline suggests and it followed a plucky display at the Emirates where they picked up a point.

Fulham have only failed to score in one game this season, the issue for Silva’s side is they have only kept one clean sheet. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals at 3.35

Bournemouth vs Chelsea

Kick-off: 14:00 Sunday, Sky Sports

Goals have certainly been laden since Andoni Iraola took charge on the south coast. Bournemouth have found the net seven times in five games, only failing to score against Tottenham in a game Spurs racked up an xG of 0.67. Most notably, the Cherries took an early lead at Anfield and scored twice at Brentford. 

Dominic Solanke tops their charts for goals scored (2), he has also chipped in with an assist and has racked up an xG of 1.8 from nine shots. It is early days yet but Solanke looks to be picking up where he left off last season where he had a hand in five goals in eight top flight appearances.

Prediction: Dominic Solanke to score any time at 3.8

Everton vs Arsenal 

Kick-off: 16:30 Sunday, Sky Sports

The underlying data paints Everton in an unfortunate light. They have scored the fewest goals per match (0.5) but rank tenth for xG (1.825) per game this season. It is a similar story defensively, eight conceded from an xG of 6.80. 

The acquisition of Beto and the form of Arnaut Danjuma could completely change their offensive shortcomings. The new frontman then led the line brilliantly at Bramall Lane, and Danjuma grabbed his second in as many games.

Arsenal’s only clean sheet of the season came at Selhurst Park and was fortunate as Crystal Palace had 14 shots and squandered a ‘big chance’.  

Prediction: Both teams to score at 1.84

Recommended Bets

Back Aston Villa to beat Crystal Palace @ 1.96
Back Brighton to beat Manchester United @ 3.1
Back over 2.5 goals in Fulham v Luton @ 3.35
Back Dominic Solanke to score at any time against Chelsea @ 3.8
Back both teams to score in Everton v Arsenal @ 1.84

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