Premier League 2024/25: Can Man City make it five in a row?

Believe it or we are under a month away from the Premier League season getting underway again. So it only seems right that we take a look forward at the outright markets.

Title Winner

Manchester City - 2.4

Manchester City won the Premier League for the fourth consecutive season in the 23/24 campaign and it is hard to look past them once again. Arsenal’s strong showing meant that the title race went down to the final day. Pep Guardiola’s side were also pushed by Liverpool for large periods of the season but the Citizens’ experience was enough to get them over the line.

Guardiola’s side lost just three league matches in the whole of last season but it is their ability to put together remarkable runs at the business end of the campaign that sets them apart.  Manchester City’s last league defeat came against Aston Villa on December 6. Since then, they enjoyed a run of 23 Premier League matches unbeaten. Over that period, they won 19 matches and scored an average of 2.61 goals per game in the process. 

Top Four 

Arsenal - 1.12

Arsenal made huge strides forward last season but it wasn’t enough for them to get their hands on any silverware. Mike Arteta has transformed the Gunners since taking over as boss but surpassing Manchester City has proven difficult. They wound up finishing two points behind Pep’s side.

Arteta has a wealth of talent at his disposal but Arsenal are expected to add to their ranks in the transfer window. Ensuring the team has enough depth to go deep in several competitions is hugely important. The Gunners ran out of steam at the end of the 22/23 season but there was no such issue in the last campaign. 

The Gunners finished the season with just 1.13 fewer expected points than the champions. They are well placed to be City’s main rival again, but I expect them to come up short.

Liverpool - 1.57

It’s a summer of upheaval at Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp has departed the club and Arne Slot has been drafted in as his replacement. The club are in capable hands, with Michael Edwards brought back in to oversee recruitment but there is bound to be a drop-off in the first season without Jurgen. At one point last season, the Reds were on course to win a quadruple but they only managed to triumph in the League Cup. 

Liverpool had the most xG in the Premier League last season with 94.79. They will be hoping to retain that attacking menace under the new manager and that should be enough to earn them a place in the top four.

There are plenty of question marks surrounding Liverpool and how they will line up under Slot but we can expect entertaining football. FSG were keen to bring Edwards back into the fold and he has proven himself to be an astute operator. Edwards’ expertise will be key in this transfer window and can help Slot get off to a positive start.

Aston Villa - 3.95

Unai Emery is finally getting his flowers in English football. He steered Aston Villa to a fourth-placed finish last season, meaning the team will play in the Champions League for the first time since 1983 when they were the holders. The Villains had the seventh highest expected points tally last season but Emery’s tactical nous in the big matches was enough to see them over perform that metric. 

The transfer window is still in its infancy but Aston Villa have done some good business. Amadou Onana has been brought in to bolster the midfield. They are also expected to raise significant sums from player sales, which will allow Emery to reshape his squad ahead of the big kick-off. 

Relegation

Leicester - 1.57

Leicester were at risk of bottling their seemingly unassailable lead in the Championship last season but they rallied at the end to secure the title. The club should be full of optimism on their return to the top flight of English football but the loss of Enzo Maresca has tempered that excitement. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall followed Maresca to Chelsea but that money has been reinvested in the likes of Issahaku Fatawu, Caleb Okoli and Michael Golding. There is plenty of time for the Foxes to bring in more reinforcements but they could be restricted by the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules.

The Foxes lost an appeal in July which would have helped them avoid punishment. Since then, the possibility of them starting the season with a points deduction has grown significantly. As a result, the team are the favourites to go down.

Ipswich - 2.14

Keiran Mckenna has taken Ipswich from League One to the Premier League in just two seasons. There were several clubs hoping to secure his signature at the end of last season but the former Manchester United coach chose to commit his future to the Tractor Boys.

Ipswich Town had the fourth-highest xG difference in the Championship last season, a remarkable feat for a side that had just been promoted. However, they should have more difficulty pressing their Premier League opponents further up the pitch and forcing errors. 

The Tractor Boys have spent heavily on the young trio of Omari Hutchinson, Jacob Greaves and Liam Delap. They’ve also brought in Ben Johnson on a free. Expect Ipswich to show plenty of fight in the upcoming campaign but they should still succumb to the drop. All three of the newly-promoted sides went down in the last Premier League season, highlighting just how difficult establishing yourself in the top flight can be. 

Nottingham Forest - 3.65

Nottingham Forest chose to replace Steve Cooper with Nuno Espirito Santo. The gamble paid off with the team successfully avoiding relegation despite being docked four points by the Premier League but it could be another tumultuous season for Forest. They wound up finishing six points above the bottom three after winning two of their last three matches.

The three teams that have come up this time around should fare better than the trio that moved up to the Premier League last season, meaning Forest are in the firing line. They scored the fourth fewest goals in the league last season with an average of 1.29 per game. Only four sides conceded more goals than Forest.