Netherlands v Argentina Tips: Expect cagey quarter-final between big nations

The second World Cup quarter-final pits the Netherlands against Argentina at the Lusail Iconic Stadium, and football expert Greg Lea is here to predict how it will pan out.

Expect a cagey start

Louis van Gaal’s astute tactics helped the Netherlands get past the USA in the Round of 16. His side sat off and slowed the tempo in the knowledge that a quick and frantic game would suit the North Americans. The Netherlands then picked off the USA on the break and won 3-1 to reach the quarter-finals for the third time in the last four editions of the World Cup.

It was a similarly comfortable Round of 16 victory for Argentina against Australia, at least until the closing stages. The Socceroos showed tremendous spirit and character to stay in the game, but they would have been three or four goals down after an hour had Lionel Scaloni’s side been more clinical.

The Netherlands and Argentina were strong favourites in their respective ties, but this match-up is a lot closer. As such, the opening 45 minutes will be tight and scrappy as neither team will be willing to open up and risk leaving themselves vulnerable in transition. The first must-have bet in this quarter-final is to back the second half to be higher scoring than the first.

Short of goalmouth action

Having begun the World Cup with Lautaro Martinez as his starting centre-forward, Scaloni has moved to a system with Lionel Messi as a false nine and Julian Alvarez on the right. When Messi inevitably drops deep to create, the Manchester City man is tasked with filling the space he vacates.

Lionel Messi: has changed positions since Argentina's loss to Saudi Arabia

The approach worked well against Poland and Australia, but the Netherlands backline will pose a stiffer test. A three-man defence gives them the option of attaching a player to Messi and following him into midfield, with ample cover in behind. Argentina will have to work harder to find the net here.

So, too, will the Netherlands. Memphis Depay’s ability to link play and connect the midfield to the attack is invaluable, but Argentina have conceded just one deflected long-range strike in their last three outings so defences could come out on top in Lusail.

Extra time and penalties?

These two nations last met in the semi-finals of World Cup 2014 and it finished 0-0 after 120 minutes - Argentina eventually triumphed on penalties. It wouldn’t be a surprise if something similar happened on Friday.

That does not necessarily mean this will be a bad game. The stakes are so high that it will be absorbing even if it is not an open, end-to-end encounter. In that meeting eight years ago, both sets of players were visibly fatigued at the end of a tournament, which came after a long and hard season. The hope this time is that fresher minds and legs will lead to a better spectacle.

Argentina are the favourites (2.3), but the draw looks like an attractive choice at 3.25. The Netherlands have only conceded two goals at this tournament and they will make life difficult for the Albiceleste, who have been heavily reliant on Messi. Do not be surprised if the score is still level after 90 minutes.

Netherlands v Argentina Tips

Second half more goals @ 2.08
Under 1.5 goals @ 2.9
Draw @ 3.25