Nations League Betting Tips: Carsley's England to start with a win in Dublin

This season’s first international break has come around very early in the season, with nations set to play for the first time since the Euros. England, Ireland and Wales are all entering new eras and play over the coming days, as well as two footballing juggernauts in France and Italy. 

Scotland vs Poland

Thursday September 5
Kick Off: 19:45
Live on ITV4

A disappointing, pragmatic Euro-qualifying campaign meant pessimism was rife in Poland. However, friendly wins against Ukraine (3-1) and Turkey (2-1) gave some hope. The Eagles scored after just 16 minutes in the opener with the Netherlands, before a 29th minute Cody Gakpo goal and 83rd minute Wout Weghorst goal meant that Poland left the first match in Germany without a point. It was, however, an entertaining affair, with the Netherlands winning the xG count 1.32-1.46. 

In a crucial, winner-takes-all clash with Austria, Poland lost 1-3, losing the xG count 1.68-2.13, before somehow holding France to a 1-1 draw, despite Les Blues accumulating 2.32 xG. This meant Poland exited the Euro’s bottom of ‘the group of death’ but with performances giving hope going forward. 

Scotland are the hosts on Thursday evening, with Steve Clarke’s side coming off the back of a disappointing Euros. A 5-1 defeat by Germany opened their campaign, before drawing 1-1 with Switzerland. This meant they went into the finale against Hungary needing at least a point to qualify. The Tartan Army were dull and pragmatic, conceding a dramatic 90+10-minute goal to exit the Euros with just one point. 

Their campaign in Germany was a far cry from their performances in qualifying, scoring 17 goals and conceding eight in a tough group containing Spain, Norway and Georgia. 

Scotland and Poland have been placed in UEFA Nations League A Group 1, alongside Portugal and Croatia. With both teams up against it in a tough group, they should go for the jugular in an entertaining clash at Hampden Park. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.50

Serbia vs Spain

Thursday September 5
Kick Off: 19:45

Serbia were very disappointing in the Euros, finishing bottom of a relatively weak group, scoring just one goal. Despite a potent-looking attack containing Luka Jovic, Alexsandar Mitrovic and Dusan Vlahovic to name a few, Dragan Stojkovic’s side were devoid of any threat or creativity. 

In the recent squad, The Eagles are without Nemanja Gudelj, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Dusan Tadic, Dusan Vlahovic, Filip Kostic and Alexsandar Mitrovic, with the general feeling in the Serbian media one of worry and discontent rife in the squad. 

Spain are fresh off of winning the Euros in a stellar campaign, where the youthful exuberance of Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal lit up the continent. It was a new-look Spain side, with pace and trickery added to a possession-heavy side. 

Spain are far and away the strongest side in a group that also contains Denmark and Switzerland. Serbia may see this game as an ideal opportunity to experiment ahead of the game against Denmark, whereas Spain will want to start the Nations League where they left off in the Euros triumph. 

Prediction: Spain -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91

France vs Italy

Friday September 6
Kick Off: 19:45

France will be looking to bounce back from Euro semi-final disappointment in a Nations League group containing Italy, Belgium and Israel. 

Les Blues were lethargic in the Euros, coming second in their group, scoring just twice and conceding once. They then beat Belgium 1-0 in the last 16, owing to a Jan Vertonghen own goal, with the Red Devils having just five shots. The quarterfinal was a familiar tale, drawing 0-0 with Portugal, before scraping through on penalties. 

In qualifying for the Euros, France won seven and drew one of their eight games, conceding just three goals. Six of their wins came to nil, with Didier Deschamps preferring pragmatism with his tactics, with the star quality fronted by Kylian Mbappe giving them goals. 

Italy exited the Euros at the last 16 stage, coming second in Group B with four points. In the three group games, they scored just three goals, with two of these coming against Albania. When playing against the group leaders Spain, Luciano Spalleti’s side were very defensive, losing 1-0 and recording just four shots. 

They were then knocked out by Switzerland in the knockouts, failing to score, with Yann Sommer making just one save. Luciano Spalletti is expected to continue with his negative style of play, targeting a very winnable game against Israel on Monday instead.

Prediction: France to win to nil @ 2.72

Wales vs Turkey

Friday September 6
Kick Off: 19:45
Live on BBC iPlayer

Craig Bellamy is set to oversee his first match as manager of Wales. The football was often slow and stagnating under Rob Page, with the ambitious Craig Bellamy looking to implement a more ‘easy on the eye’ style, encouraging his players to keep possession. 

This may take some adaptation for a Welsh squad that have struggled in recent games - most notably a 0-0 draw with Gibraltar and a 4-0 loss to Slovakia. In their failed attempt to qualify for Euro 2024, The Dragons came third in a group that contained Turkey.

Vincenzo Montella’s side drew 1-1 at the Cardiff City Stadium in a match they dominated, as well as sweeping Wales aside 2-0 at home. The Crescent-Stars were many people’s favourite team to watch in the Euros, with every game highly entertaining. They beat Georgia (3-1) and The Czech Republic (1-2) in the group stages as well as losing 0-3 to Portugal. 

Turkey then beat a heavily fancied Austria side 2-1 in the last 16, before a late collapse against Netherlands saw them knocked out in the quarter final. They are a much more established and familiar side than Wales who are entering a new era. 

Prediction: Turkey draw no bet @ 1.99

Ireland vs England

Saturday September 7
Kick Off: 17:00
Live on ITV X

In what is arguably the most awaited tie in the Nations League slate, Ireland host England for the first time since 2015. 

As they failed to qualify for the Euros, Ireland haven’t played a competitive game since November 2023- a game in which they lost 1-0 to the Netherlands. The boys in green were mightily disappointing in qualification, winning just twice – both against lowly Gibraltar. 

Ireland are entering a new dawn since the departure of Stephen Kenny. Former Iceland manager Heimir Hallgrimsson is the new man at the helm, and excitement is brewing ahead of the new era. 

Hallgrimsson’s squad announcement was met with scepticism, with a lot of the old guard still called up. On top of this, Evan Ferguson is yet to play any competitive minutes since his surgery, so Ireland look like they are lacking goals. 

England are also entering a new era, with Lee Carsley managing his first match in interim charge. The former Republic of Ireland international has freshened up the squad that lost so disappointingly to Spain in the Euros final. Since the squad announcement, Cole Palmer, Ollie Watkins and Phil Foden have withdrawn, so there is expected to be a host of new faces in the Three Lions squad. 

When at the Aviva Stadium, Ireland kept it close against France and Netherlands, losing 0-1 and 1-2 respectively. In both games, Ireland were drawing at halftime. With a packed-out crowd who will be desperate for a positive result against rivals, Ireland should start on the front foot. England may also take time to gel with their new manager and squad. However, The Three Lions should have too much quality for the boys in green, so should eventually get over the line. 

Prediction: Half Time/Full Time – Draw/England @ 3.95

Recommended Bets

Back over 2.5 goals in Scotland vs Poland @ 2.50
Back Spain -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91
Back France to win to nil @ @ 2.72
Back Turkey draw no bet @ 1.99
Back Draw/England @ 3.95