Nations League Betting Tips: Back England to see off Greek challenge

After a couple more winners at the weekend, Andy Schooler returns to take a look at matchday three of the UEFA Nations League, including England v Greece.

England v Greece

Thursday, 19:45, ITV1

Lee Carsley’s reign as England boss, temporary or otherwise, began in fine fashion last month with two wins and no goals conceded.

But it was the same for Greece, who put the disappointment of missing out on Euro 2024 behind them, and the visitors could make lift difficult for England at Wembley.

They’ve kept eight clean sheets in their last 11 games with the three matches in which they’ve conceded bringing a 2-2 draw with France, a 2-1 defeat in Germany and a 1-0 loss to the Netherlands. In short, it's been a long time since they’ve lost by more than one goal.

Greece have a team without any global stars but they have several players competing in this season’s Champions League, while Kostas Tsimikas, Odysseas Vlachodimos and Dinos Mavropanos all ply their trade in the Premier League.

The hosts were without Phil Foden, Cole Palmer and Jude Bellingham last month but all three are now available and so Carsley must decide if he will shoehorn the trio into his side and, if he does, how. He describes it as a “nice problem” to have but it’s one which could cause a few headaches, while Harry Kane has a knock and is a doubt.

With England their usual short price, the value here looks to lie in Greece keeping this close.

Back them on the Asian handicap via the +1.5 line – you’ll profit if they avoid defeat or lose by one.

Prediction: Greece (+1.5) on the Asian handicap @ 1.97

Iceland v Wales

Friday, 19:45, S4C

Sometimes you just have to go with the flow and right now things are certainly running in Brennan Johnson’s direction.

He landed us a winner on these pages last weekend when he scored at Brighton and the Spurs man has now netted in his last six club games.

That should have ensured he arrived in the Wales camp this week with confidence sky high and he should be a threat against a home defence which conceded three to Turkey last month. In contrast, Wales kept a clean sheet against the Turks.

It’s not the most original bet, but Johnson to score looks a solid play at 3.25.

Prediction: Brennan Johnson anytime scorer @ 3.25

Croatia v Scotland

Saturday, 17:00, YouTube

Playing in League A for the first time, Scotland were competitive in their opening two matches last month but ultimately lost both (to Portugal and Poland).

Boss Steve Clarke would have been pleased with how his side managed to score three times in those games but defensively there remain real concerns with the Scots having now conceded at least twice in 10 of their last 14 internationals.

Poland managed three at Hampden last month, while Germany, Netherlands, Norway, France and England have also put 3+ past them in the last 13 months.

It would therefore be no surprise were Croatia to score a few in Zagreb and the goalscorer value looks to lie with veteran Luka Modric.

He’s no longer starting every Real Madrid game but he remains an important man for a Croatia side which has given him a more attacking role in recent times.

That’s helped Modric’s goal output with three scored in his last six internationals. He also missed a penalty in that run – it remains to be seen who will take the next spot kick.

Whatever the choice, Modric looks overpriced to find the net.

Prediction: Luka Modric anytime scorer @ 5.9

Belarus v Northern Ireland

Saturday, 19:45, YouTube

Every game in this group so far has landed the under 2.5 goals bet with three going under 1.5.

It’s hard to see that mould being broken here.

Belarus have scored only three goals in their last eight internationals, five of which have seen under 1.5 goals. The fact that Max Ebong is the leading scorer in their squad with five international goals says much.

Northern Ireland, beaten 1-0 by Bulgaria in their last away game, have gone under 2.5 in 13 of their last 16 and under 1.5 in seven of those games.

The one concern for under-goals backers looks to be the Irish’s goalkeeping situation. Bailey Peacock-Farrell is injured so an inexperienced replacement will fill in - Luke Southwood, Pierce Charles and Christy Pym have just one cap between them.

Still, under 1.5 goals at 2.4 still looks the way to go.

Prediction: Under 1.5 goals @ 2.4

Serbia v Switzerland

Saturday, 19:45, YouTube

This could be a real firecracker of a game in League A and well worth following if you are a fan of backing cards.

Eleven were produced when these two last met at the 2022 World Cup against a politically-charged background – the Swiss have several players with links to Kosovo, a country Serbia refuses to recognise.

Admittedly, Granit Xhaka and Xherdan Shaqiri won’t be playing this time but several players with roots in the Balkans remain in the squad, including the Kosovo-born Uran Bislimi.

In front of what looks sure to be a hostile crowd in Leskovac, a city not far from the border with Kosovo, it would be no surprise to see ill feeling bubble to the surface again.

With that in mind, let’s back Strahinja Pavlovic for a card.

The left-sided centre-back has been booked in 11 of his 29 competitive internationals and will likely be up against the oft-fouled Breel Embolo here – the Swiss was fouled no fewer than 11 times across last month’s two Nations League games.

Referee Simone Sozza has been a decent one for cards and fouls in recent times so it’s not hard to see the Milan defender coming under his scrutiny here.

Prediction: Strahinja Pavlovic to be carded @ 3.55

Recommended Bets

Greece (+1.5) on the Asian handicap v England @ 1.97
Brennan Johnson anytime scorer in Iceland v Wales @ 3.25
Luka Modric anytime scorer in Croatia v Scotland @ 5.9
Under 1.5 goals in Belarus v Northern Ireland @ 2.4
Strahinja Pavlovic to be carded in Serbia v Switzerland @ 3.55