Morocco v Portugal Tips: Tom Collins expects African nation to keep it tight

SBK tipster Tom Collins previews Saturday’s World Cup quarter-final between Morocco, who are making their first appearance at this stage, and Portugal at the Al Thumama Stadium.

No Ronaldo, better performance

Portugal may have topped Group H, but they certainly didn’t do it with much conviction. They kickstarted their World Cup 2022 campaign with a dramatic 3-2 victory over Ghana (all five goals came in a frantic second half), before relying on two Bruno Fernandes strikes to beat Uruguay 2-0 in a cagey and rather dull affair. Their qualification was assured going into the final group match, which they ended up losing 2-1 to South Korea after numerous line-up changes.

Manager Fernando Santos, who has been in charge since 2014, made a huge call to leave talisman Cristiano Ronaldo out of their Round of 16 tie with Switzerland, but his decision was proved to be inspired as his team pounded their European rivals with a scoreline of 6-1. Ronaldo was replaced by Benfica’s Goncalo Ramos, who netted on three occasions.

Santos is now left with a key dilemma: does he keep the same starting squad or bring Ronaldo back in for their meeting with Morocco? Based on the team’s performances at this World Cup, the former option might prove to be the smart play, especially given the impact CR7 could make from the bench if his team is in need of a goal.

Strong defensive unit

Morocco have progressed further than they could have realistically believed was possible. The North Africans, who are ranked 22nd in FIFA’s standings, weren’t expected to make it past the group stages after being drawn against European powerhouses Belgium and Croatia, but three stout and solid displays helped them to top the standings.

They averaged just 36% possession across their group games, but fantastic organisation and an effective low defensive block led to Morocco conceding just five total shots on target and one goal. In fact, that one goal didn’t even come from an opposing player - Moroccan defender Nayef Aguerd stuck out his foot to block a cross against Canada and unfortunately deflected the ball into the net. In that game, Canada didn’t manage a single shot on target.

Morocco’s biggest shock this tournament came in the Round of 16 when they beat Spain on penalties. Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou was heralded as the star after Spain’s Pablo Sarrabia, Carlos Soler and Sergio Busquets all missed, while their Moroccan counterparts dispatched their spot kicks with just one blemish. More impressively, Morocco conceded just one shot on target over 120 minutes against a team that had previously averaged six per game. 

So, what's the verdict?

Portugal are the favourites to progress, but they have generally disappointed under increasing pressure in previous World Cups. They seem to be a confidence team, and it would be no surprise if they became frustrated against a stout Moroccan unit. This game figures to be a grind with so much on the line - one strike might win it, and I want to be taking under 2.5 goals. 

For a little bit more value, back Morocco or draw after 90 minutes. Extra-time looks a distinct possibility. 

Morocco v Portugal Tips

Morocco or draw after 90 minutes @ 2.2
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.71