Focus Fixture: Can Man Utd end Arsenal's title charge at Old Trafford?

Manchester United are massive underdogs as they welcome Arsenal to Old Trafford on  Sunday. Erik Ten Hag’s side are priced at 7.20 to win on the full-time result market ahead of this match, highlighting just how far they have fallen under the Dutchman this season.

The Form

Manchester United have won just one game in 90 minutes since beating Everton at Old Trafford on March 9. That’s a run of nine matches. They have progressed to the FA Cup final in that period but they are sinking to new lows as the games progress.

The deficiencies in the United setup have been clear from the very first game of the season. They were fortunate to beat Wolves on the opening Monday Night Football and the issues with their structure haven’t been addressed. 

The Red Devils are on course to concede more shots than the Derby County side that ended the season with a record-low of 11 points. Things have worsened in 2024. 

Erik Ten Hag continues to insist on his forwards pressing high up the pitch, leaving huge gaps in front of a deep-lying defence. United are producing football you’d expect from relegation candidates so expect one-way traffic on Sunday.

Arsenal have been exceptional this season but this still might come empty-handed. They have a slender advantage over Manchester City coming into this weekend’s fixtures but Pep Guardiola’s side have the advantage of a game in hand. Mikel Arteta and his squad are now praying for a rare City slip-up in their final three matches.

The Gunners beat Manchester United 3-1 when the sides met at the Emirates earlier this season but their record at Old Trafford in recent years has been poor. Arsenal have won just one of their last nine matches at this ground. Four of those games have ended in a draw but anything less than three points won’t be enough on Sunday.

The Runners and the Riders

Injuries have only added to Manchester United’s troubles this season. Ten Hag’s questionable approach has been compounded by the absence of key players. Lautaro Martinez returned to training this week but is unlikely to feature. Varane, Shaw, Malacia, Lindelof, Kambwala and Maguire are all out so a centre-back pairing of Casemiro and Evans is likely once again. Rashford and Fernandes could be in line to make a return to action.

Jurrien Timber is Arsenal’s only injury doubt. He was injured at the start of the season but should return to the first team before the campaign ends having played minutes for the under 21s.

What They Said

Jamie Carragher has been critical of Erik Ten Hag’s tactical setup this season and he launched another scathing attack following the 4-0 defeat at Crystal Palace. The Monday Night football pundit said, "This is one of the most poorly coached teams in the Premier League. That is a fact. That is not an opinion. That is a fact. The numbers tell you that when you see them bottom of the league defensively, lower than Sheffield United.”

Mikel Arteta urged his side to keep believing they can win the title back in April when they were beaten by Aston Villa. He said at the time, “Now is the moment to stand up as a leader and a character to make yourself count. Now it’s a big test for us.” The Gunners have certainly stood up since then. They have recorded some impressive victories and still harbour hopes of finishing above City. 

Selection

For our main bet. I’m backing over 3.5 goals in the match. Manchester United’s last 10 matches have seen an average of 4.1 goals per game; two for Ten Hag’s side and 21 for the opposition. They seldom fail to score at Old Trafford so let’s hope they can contribute to the goal count here.

It’s the underlying defensive data that paints the bleakest picture for Manchester United here. They have the fifth worst expected goals against in the Premier League and are facing a formidable attack here. Even when they are picking up results, United rely on last-ditch blocks to keep the opposition out. They are conceding an average of 21.13 shots per league game in 2024 and Arsenal could display their ruthless side here.

The Gunners have scored the second-most goals in the league this season. Their eight away Premier League matches in 2-24 have seen them score an average of 3.38 goals. Their most recent match on the road was a 3-2 win over Tottenham. 

Over 3.5 goals landed as Arsenal won 3-1 when the sides met earlier this season. Manchester United won 3-1 the last time these sides clashed at Old Trafford. 

Recommended Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 1.98

Bet Builder Tip 

We are backing goals as part of our longer odds bet builder but we are also backing Arsenal to win. 

The Gunners should make light work of this makeshift Manchester United defence and the odds suggest it's just a question of by how many. This is a great opportunity for Arsenal to improve their record at this ground.

The next betting angle is for Arsenal to win at least four more corners than Manchester United. They won the corner count 12-3 when the sides met earlier in the campaign. The Gunners have won the third most corners in England’s top flight this season with an average of three per game. They are conceding an average of just three per match.

Manchester United’s league matches in 2024 have seen them concede an average of 8.93 corners per game. They have played five matches against sides currently in the top seven over that period. United’s opponents are averaging 12.4 corners in those games, whereas the Red Devils have had an average of 5.4.

Recommended Bet: Both teams to score, over 3.5 goals, Arsenal to win & Arsenal -3.5 corners handicap at 5.20