Focus Fixture: Scott Thornton's 17/1 bet builder which could decide the Premier League title race

We have reached the final day of the Premier League season and the title is still to be decided. Scott Thornton has a bet builder for Arsenal and Manchester City's matches. 

Arsenal vs Everton

16:00 Sunday

Arsenal take on Everton at the Emirates on Sunday. Mikel Arteta’s side need a win to have any chance of ending the day as champions but they are relying on an upset at the Etihad. The Gunners must remain focused on getting the job done against the Toffees.

The Form

The Gunners have gone up a level from last season but it is unlikely to be enough to snatch the Premier League title from Manchester City. The loss at home to Aston Villa back in April looks set to prove costly but there is still a glimmer of hope for Arteta’s men.

Arsenal have won their five league matches since the defeat against Unai Emery’s side. They have triumphed over the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham during that run.

Everton head into the final match day of the season in 15th. The Toffees have been docked eight points for breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules this season so Sean Dyche will be delighted with the way things have panned out. Everton would be tied with Brighton on 48 points if it wasn’t for those deductions.

Dyche’s side are unbeaten in their last five matches. They narrowly beat Sheffield United in their last match but need to up their game if they are to get anything out of this clash with a rampant Arsenal side.

The Runners and the Riders

Jurrien Timber could be in line to make his first appearance since being injured at the very start of the season. The former Ajax player has had an unfortunate first campaign at Arsenal but should prove to be an asset in the years to come. There are no other injury concerns for Mikel Arteta.

Jack Harrison, Nathan Patterson and Vitalii Mykolenko are all absent for the visitors. Andre Gomes could feature but it seems unlikely at this stage. There is still no return date set for Dele Alli.

What They Said

Mikel Arteta was keen to acknowledge what his side had achieved regardless of the outcome on Sunday. The Arsenal boss said, ‘‘This is the nice part, fighting for the title until the last day. It will be the first time that the Premier League trophy will be there waiting at the Emirates since it was built, with red ribbons on it, because if we win and they don’t, it’s ours.’’

It's been a tough season for Everton off the pitch but Sean Dyche has kept the players focused. Dyche said, "It was different last season, but this season has been incredibly tough to see through the feeling and noise at times. I took a few hits myself but that is part of my job, to stay focused on the job in hand.”

Selection

Our first tip for Arsenal vs Everton is for the home side to win and keep a clean sheet. The Gunners boast the best defensive record in the league this season with the team conceding just 0.76 goals per league game. The underlying data also makes for good reading. Arsenal have an expected goals against of just 31.12. That’s the fewest in the league and 5.91 less than Manchester City, who rank 2nd in that regard.

Everton were beaten 1-0 when the sides met at Goodison Park earlier in the season. Sean Dyche’s side had just 26% possession in that match and could only manage a single shot on target.  The Toffees also failed to score on their last visit to the Emirates. They were beaten 4-0 in this fixture last season. 

Only Sheffield United have scored fewer league goals than Everton this season. The Toffees have averaged 1.05 goals per game. This is significantly lower than their 1.46 xG per game, suggesting they squander a decent number of opportunities. They are unlikely to be given many chances against the league’s best defence.

Recommended Bet: Arsenal to win and both teams to score – no at 2.00

Bet Builder Tip

Our bet builder tip for this match also features Arsenal to win and keep a clean sheet. We are also backing Leandro Trossard to score.  The Belgian is the man in form at the top end of the pitch for Arsenal. He scored the solitary goals in the win at Old Trafford, taking his tally to four goals in his last five Premier League matches. 

Trossard’s non-penalty xG of 0.38 per 90 minutes played means he ranks in the 94th percentile when compared with all other attacking midfielders and wingers across Europe’s top five leagues.

We are also backing Ashley Young to be carded. The Premier League veteran is Everton’s joint second-most carded player this season with a total of seven yellows and one red. He is set for a bust afternoon whether he lines up at left back or right back. Young was booked in the reverse fixture against Arsenal.

Recommended Bet: Arsenal to win and both teams to score – no, Trossard to score and Young to be carded at 18.00

Manchester City vs West Ham

16:00 Sunday

Manchester City are the overwhelming favourites when they take on West Ham at the Etihad.  City have secured a few Premier League titles on the season's final day and will look to put on a show here.

The Form

Manchester City have been in the sort of form you’ve come to expect from them at the business end of the season. They are sitting pretty at the top of the Premier League after winning their game in hand against Tottenham. Pep Guardiola’s side are also in the FA Cup final. They could well have been chasing another treble if it wasn’t for a narrow penalty shootout defeat against Real Madrid in the Champions League. 

Since losing 1-0 at Villa Park in early December, Manchester City are unbeaten in regulation time in their 35 matches. Pep’s side have won their last six matches in all competitions and another win here would see them clinch their fourth consecutive Premier League title.

David Moyes will take charge of his final game as West Ham boss on Sunday. The Scot led the team to European glory last season but they style of play has left many fans wanting change. Julen Lopetegui is the man they have chosen the lead the team forward next season.

West Ham ended their six-match winless run by beating Luton 3-1 on home turf last weekend. They harboured ambitions of qualifying for Europe at the start of the campaign but they are 9th heading into this match.

The Runners and the Riders

Ederson has been ruled out until the end of the season but Stefan Ortega has proven himself to be a worthy understudy to the Brazilian. Kevin De Bruyne is a fitness doubt and will be assessed ahead of this match. Pep Guardiola will want to ensure the Belgian is available for the FA Cup final against Manchester United.

Kalvin Phillips is injured but wouldn’t have been able to feature against his parent club here. His stint at West Ham has been unsuccessful. The fitness of Konstantinos Mavropanos and Nayef Aguerd will evaluated ahead of the trip to Manchester.

What They Said

Pep Guardiola issued a warning against complacency to his players ahead of Sunday’s showdown, likening their situation to serving for the match in tennis. He said, “Anything can happen. Like I said before, to win Wimbledon, tennis players say the serve to win is the most difficult. We need to prepare well, focus and try again.”

David Moyes has reflected on his time at West Ham ahead of his final match. He said, “If I had never won a trophy during that time I would have still felt proud but lifting that cup meant something more visible, more tangible and it was the first time a British manager had won a European club title since Sir Alex Ferguson in 2008.” When talking about last season’s Europa Conference League triumph.

Selection

Our single tip for this match is for Manchester City to win by at least three goals by backing them with a -2.5 handicap. The pressure is on here but I expect City to put the game out of reach as quickly as possible.

Pep Guardiola’s side have proven how ruthless they can be under pressure. They have won their last three league games at the Etihad by three goals or more and we should see a one side affair once again.

West Ham have a truly miserable record against City. Their last win over the reigning champions of England came in 2015. They have lost on their last eight visits to the Etihad. This bet won as they lost 3-0 in this fixture last season.

Recommended Bet:  Manchester City -2.5 handicap at 1.70 

Bet Builder Tip

Our additional betting angle for our bet builder is for Erling Haaland to score a hat-trick. Haaland has faced criticism this season and many feel as though he has been absent in the big games for Manchester City.

Haaland remains the league’s top scorer and his recent form suggests the criticism was unwarranted. He has scored nine goals in his last six Premier League matches and it would be typical of Erling to net three on the final day to take his league tally to 30 goals.

The Norwegian’s non-penalty xG of 0.79 per 90 minutes played means he ranks in the top 1% of forwards across Europe’s top five leagues. He is averaging 6.44 touches per game in the opposition box and should make an impact here. 

Recommended Bet: Manchester City -2.5 handicap and Haaland to score 3+ at 5.70