Focus Fixture: Can Man United stop City's title charge

We are getting to the crunch point of the season, the point where trophies are decided and for the past few seasons this is the point when Manchester City have really hit top gear. 

They host Manchester United this Sunday, then Copenhagen in the Champions League on Wednesday, followed by a trip to Anfield for next week’s Super Sunday clash. 

It is likely that this week will have serious ramifications for their campaign to win back-to-back Champions League titles and a record-fourth Premier League title in a row. 

Manchester United meanwhile have had another disappointing season. They are trying to cling onto Aston Villa and Tottenham in the pursuit of Champions League qualification but a loss here could seriously derail them. Our market currently gives them a 7% chance of finishing in the top four.

Man City haven't tasted defeat since a 1-0 loss at Villa Park back at the start of December. Over their last ten games, they hold the best record in the league - winning eight and drawing two. They have only conceded eight goals in this period - joint best in the league with Arsenal. In terms of scoring goals they haven't been as remarkable as you might expect with 21. It is worth noting that they did put six past Luton on Tuesday night.

The Reds are seventh over the same time period; winning five, drawing two and losing three. While they have scored the same amount of goals as City, 21, they have conceded 15. You could say they have got off lightly considering the number of shots they’ve faced, they have conceded 100 shots across five Premier League matches in 2024. To put this in perspective, City have conceded 197 all season.

The Runners and Riders

Man City have been on their way back to full strength in the past few weeks with Kevin De Bruyne, Erling Haaland and John Stones all returning to the side. These three along with Rodri were pivotal in the success that City achieved last season, and they will be again if they are to fulfill their ambitions. 

Jack Grealish appeared to come off injured against Luton in the week, but the winger has struggled to make an impact this season so his loss won’t be too keenly felt. The other doubt is summer-signing Josko Gvardiol who is slowly returning to training. 

United on the other hand have plenty of injuries. Most notably Rasmus Hojlund, who had found fantastic form before his injury scoring seven goals in six games. They are also without Lisandro Martinez, Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw at the back. Mason Mount is also still missing from their midfield. 

What They Said

Erik Ten Hag used his press conference to call for Bruno Fernandes to receive more protection from referees, “You see opponents targeting him, especially after Saturday when he had a knock and they see it. I feel the refereeing should protect him.” It is worth noting that there are 213 players who are fouled more than Fernandes per 90 minutes played. 

Pep Guardiola said: “"I always expect the best. When they play good, they win games. From one action, they can create something special. In set pieces, transition and open play they can score goals. In 2024 they've lost just one game. The consistency is there, especially this year. We'll prepare for the game tactically to get three points and continue to be up there."

Bet Builder Tip

For me, a City win has got to be the first part of any bet you are going to place on this match. The last two matches between the two sides at the Etihad and the reverse fixture were all won by a margin of three goals so an asian handicap bet of -2.5 seems like a sensible bet. United’s record away from home against teams in the top nine makes for grim reading, their win over Aston Villa a few weeks ago was their first in 29 attempts. 

I am also going to take Manchester City to keep a clean sheet. This is something they have achieved in 38% of their home games this season. Without Hojlund, United’s attack looks very toothless. Marcus Rashford has always preferred playing wide on the left rather than through the middle. I can see City dealing with United pretty easily. In the two games that Hojland has missed both of United’s goals have come from set pieces with Maguire and Casemiro being the players to find the back of the net. 

I am also going to pick United to receive the most number of cards. While the number of cards in this match has fluctuated in recent editions, the Reds have been consistently receiving the most cards. In the last four league matches this has been the case, so it seems like a safe bet. 

Recommended Bet

Manchester City Asian Handicap -2.5, Man City to keep a clean sheet and Man Utd to receive the most cards @ 5.80