Malta v England Tips: Three Lions expected to maintain winning record in Euros push

Almost seven years have passed since Gareth Southgate’s first game as England manager against Malta, and he’s about to complete a full circle as the Three Lions face off against the European minnows on Friday.

Just four players in the current England squad - Kyle Walker, John Stones, Jordan Henderson and Marcus Rashford - remain from that warm afternoon back in October 2016, and the then interim manager has come a long way. 

This match-up marks top versus bottom in Group C of the Euro 2024 qualifiers and the Three Lions are heavy favourites to beat a Maltese side that has lost four of their last five competitive fixtures. Their only win came against San Marino in the Nations League.

Football expert Joe Crann provides a run-down of Friday’s game, which could feature a much-changed England side that is looking to make it three wins from three games.

Head-to-head record 

There are plenty of reasons why Malta are priced at 90 to win this game. One such factor is England’s 100% record in the head-to-head database. From five games played, England have won all five with a goal difference of +13.

Two of those encounters came under Southgate’s watch. He oversaw a 2-0 victory on managerial debut, before posting a 4-0 success on the way to qualifying for the 2018 World Cup. A young Harry Kane took his goal tally to double figures for England in the second match, and he’s scored another 45 times since.

Both teams to score (3.8) looks pretty slim given Malta’s only successful strike against England came courtesy of a Richard Wright own goal back in 2000.

A different looking Three Lions

Given the public celebrations from English members of the treble-winning Manchester City squad, it would be a surprise to see any of them start at the National Stadium on Saturday. As such, there should be at least two changes from the side that beat Ukraine last time out.

Ben Chilwell and Jude Bellingham are also non-participants due to injury, which could mean a debut for exciting Crystal Palace midfielder Eberechi Eze. Given his goalscoring exploits in South London, you wouldn’t put it past him to get in on the action if he’s given a starting berth.

Harry Kane (1.34 anytime goalscorer) is obviously the favourite to get among the goals, but an interesting bet could be Bukayo Saka (1.82) after he caused so many problems in his last England outing.

There will be goals – but how many?

It wouldn’t be odd to suggest an extremely high-scoring and one-sided encounter in normal circumstances, but this game takes place at the end of a long season and several key players will be absent or not at peak fitness. There is a chance that this becomes a box-ticking exercise. 

Italy only beat Malta 2-0 back in March, but a 4-0 or 5-0 scoreline looks far more likely from England with so many fringe players to stake a claim for future call-ups. 

Malta v England Tips

Bukayo Saka anytime goalscorer @ 1.82
England to win and Over 3.5 goals @ 1.72