Focus Fixture: Will Luton get off to fast start against Burnley

Luton host Burnley in the final game of the opening weekend of the Championship on Monday night. Both of these teams have their sights set on promotion and a winning start would do them a world of good. 

The Form

Luton performed admirably last season but they were unable to retain their place in the top flight of English football. They finished six points from safety but two points ahead of Burnley, who were expected to finish above Rob Edwards’ side ahead of last season.  

The Hatters earned promotion via the play-offs in their last season in the Championship but will be aiming to finish in the top two after a solid summer following their relegation. Rob Edwards’ is now tasked with rebuilding and ensuring his team lives up to their tag as one of the promotion favourites. 

Vincent Kompany’s departure to Bayern Munich was a bitter pill for Burnley to swallow. The Clarets had hoped to keep the former Manchester City captain at the helm to steer them back to the Premier League but the allure of Bayern was too much to resist. 

Scott Parker’s appointment wasn’t universally lauded but he has proven himself an adept coach, particularly in the Championship. The former Tottenham midfielder has earned promotion at this level with two different clubs as a manager. Anything other than promotion would be a huge disappointment for Burnley.

The Runners and the Riders

Luton have a few players missing for this clash, especially in defence. Reece Burke, Teden Mengi, Amari’I Bell, Mads Anderson and Daiki Hashioka are all absent here. Nevertheless, Rob Edwards’ still has a strong squad at his disposal and has a great connection with this group of players.

Jordan Beyer, Zeki Amdouni and Luca Koleosho face late fitness tests if they are to feature here. Sander Berge has been linked with a move to Manchester United. It’s unclear if that will affect the midfielder’s availability here. 

What They Said

When Luton last earned promotion to the top flight, there was very little expectation surrounding the club but Rob Edwards has called upon his players to embrace the pressure this time around. He said, “It’s going to be a big season, there's some added pressure this year because of what we have achieved but we welcome that. We understand and embrace that.”

Scott Parker’s last job was an unsuccessful stint in Belgium and he says he has a point to prove upon his return to England. The Burnley boss said, “ I come here with two promotions with two different football clubs but ultimately this is a new challenge for me and I think we’ve all got something to prove.” 

Selection

Luton’s matches in the Premier League last season saw an average of 11.5 corners per game. Only Manchester United, Tottenham, Bournemouth and Liverpool matches saw more corners.

Burnley matches also saw a decent amount of corners last season with an average of 11.11. That’s just above the Premier League average of 10.82 per game. The Clarets’ away matches saw an average of 11.58 corners.

On Burnley’s two visits to Kenilworth Road since the start of the 2022/23 season, there have been 12 and 13 corners respectively. There is very little to split these sides and both will be keen to make a winning start. We should see both show plenty of attacking impetus which can only help the corner count.

There have been plenty of corners in the first 11 Championship games so far this weekend. There has been an average of 11.91 per game so we are backing over 10.5 in this match. 

Recommended Bet: Over 10.5 corners at 1.75 

Bet Builder Tip

We are also backing corners as part of our longer odds bet builder for this match. Over 12.5 corners the last time these teams met at this ground in the Championship and we could see plenty of corners once again. 

Out other angle is Dara O’Shea to make at least two fouls in the match. Burnley committed an average of 12.11 fouls per away game in the Premier League last season, which was comfortably above the average of 11.06 fouls by a team in a league game. 

O’Shea contributed with 36 fouls. Only Sander Berge and Josh Brownhill made more fouls in the league. Despite Dara ranking highly in terms of fouls, he is much further down in the fouls betting markets for price. The centre-back made 1.1 fouls per 90 minutes played on average and he should have his hands full at Kenilworth Road. O’Shea made one foul the last time these teams went head-to-head.

Recommended Bet: Over 12.5 corners and over 1.5 fouls for Dara O’Shea at 8.60