Italy v England Tips: Three Lions out to end torrid Azzurri record on Thursday
By Joe Crann
Italy v England Odds22 March 2023
England has a miserable record against Italy, but the Three Lions will be out to change that on Thursday when they go into battle at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
It’s the first game of their Euro 2024 qualifiers, and England manager Gareth Southgate will be eager to try and banish a few demons after what happened the last few times that the two nations locked horns.
Many will remember the Euros final at Wembley in 2021, but two Nations League fixtures have followed that and the Three Lions haven’t scored in either. The Azzurri have had their number, and it stretches back a long time before Southgate.
Head-to-head misery
The last time England beat Italy was back in 2012, but that came in an international friendly. Only those of a certain generation will remember the last time they took the spoils in a competitive fixture - a 2-0 win in the 1977 World Cup.
Both of England’s victories in Italy also came in friendlies in 1941 and 1968, though what relevance that has is up for debate. A fair bit has changed since then!
Gareth Southgate: will hope his side can record a famous victory over the Italians
Despite the historical head-to-head statistics, England are the favourite (2.7) in this encounter, though only just as Italy are priced at 3.05 for a home win. Previous results suggest there’s value in a draw (3.25) with the scores remaining level after 90 minutes in four of their last five meetings.
Goalfest? Possibly not
There haven’t been more than two goals in any of the previous five games between these sides, and you have to cast your eyes back to a 1976 friendly in the United States for the last time there were more than three.
Games between these nations tend to be tight and, given both sides will likely feel rusty after a long gap since the last international break, there is a chance that we could be in for a cagey affair in Naples.
With 1-1 proving to be a regular scoreline, it is worth combining the draw with both teams to score (5.9). That could be overly specific, but neither side will want to start their qualification with a defeat.
Chasing history
Harry Kane is a man on a mission in England colours, and he will be desperate to add to his impressive tally of 53 goals so that he can overtake Wayne Rooney and become his nation’s outright top scorer.
Interestingly, though, it’s Brentford’s in-form striker Ivan Toney who is favourite to find the back of the net at some point during the match (2.68), while Gianluca Scamacca (3.65) tops the list for Italy.
Bukayo Saka (4.2) comes into this match brimming with confidence after his Arsenal exploits, and there might be some value in backing him to transfer his form to the international stage.